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Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications

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  • Chng, Michael T.
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    Abstract

    We investigate cross-market trading dynamics in futures contracts written on seemingly unrelated commodities that are consumed by a common industry. On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, we find such evidence in natural rubber (NR), palladium (PA) and gasoline (GA) futures markets. The automobile industry is responsible for more than 50% of global demand for each of these commodities. VAR estimation reveals short-run cross-market interaction between NR and GA, and from NR to PA. Cross-market influence exerted by PA is felt in longer dynamics, with PA volatility (volume) affecting NR (GA) volume (volatility). Our findings are robust to lag-specification, volatility measure, and consistent with full BEKK-GARCH estimation results. Further analysis, which benchmarks against silver futures market, TOCOM index and TOPIX transportation index, confirms that our results are driven by a common industry exposure, and not a commodity market factor. A simple trading rule that incorporates short-run GA and long-run PA dynamics to predict NR return yields positive economic profit. Our study offers new insights into how commodity and equity markets relate at an industry level, and implications for multi-commodity hedging.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (May)
    Pages: 958-970

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:5:p:958-970

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    Keywords: Volatility Volume Cross-market Trading dynamics VAR Commodity futures;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    2. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2014. "Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 289-295.
    3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Malik, Farooq & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Risk management of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 435-441.
    4. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    5. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    6. Castro, F. & Gago, J. & Hartillo, I. & Puerto, J. & Ucha, J.M., 2011. "An algebraic approach to integer portfolio problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 647-659, May.
    7. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "International Linkages of Agri-Processed and Energy commodities traded in India," MPRA Paper 50214, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Sep 2013.
    8. Difang Wan & Yang Yang & Dong Fang & Guang Yang, 2010. "Research on the margin of futures markets and the policy spillover effect," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 34-56, December.

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