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Mean and Variance Causality between Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries

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  • Angelos Kanas
  • Georgios P. Kouretas

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of mean and variance causality across four Latin American official and black markets for foreign currency using monthly data for the period 1976–1993. We apply a recent test developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) in order to test for mean and variance spillovers. The main findings are: (1) In contrast to the findings of previous studies, EGARCH‐M processes characterize each bilateral exchange rate series in both markets; (2) There is substantial evidence of causality in both mean and variance with the causality in mean largely being driven by the causality in variance; and (3) The results indicate that the major exporter of causality is the Mexican black market with the black market of Argentina and the black and official markets of Brazil being the smallest contributors.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelos Kanas & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2002. "Mean and Variance Causality between Official and Parallel Currency Markets: Evidence from Four Latin American Countries," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 137-163, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:37:y:2002:i:2:p:137-163
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6288.00009
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    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Long-run nature of the relationship between the black market and the official exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 319-327, September.
    2. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    3. Bertrand Candelon & Sessi Tokpavi, 2016. "A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 240-253, April.
    4. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    5. Christian M. Hafner & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing for Causality in Variance Usinf Multivariate GARCH Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 89, pages 215-241.
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Sessi Tokpavi, 2016. "A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 240-253, April.
    7. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. González, Mariano, 2016. "Asymmetric causality in-mean and in-variance among equity markets indexes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 49-68.
    9. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T. & Kruse, Jamie B. & Lynch, Gerald J., 2009. "Modeling the time-varying volatility of the paper-bill spread," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(5), pages 404-414, September.
    10. Soylu, Pınar Kaya & Güloğlu, Bülent, 2019. "Financial contagion and flight to quality between emerging markets and U.S. bond market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Bertrand Candelon & Sessi Tokpavi, 2016. "A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 240-253, April.
    12. Ginny ju-ann Yang & Koyin Chang & Yung-Hsiang Ying & Chen-hsun Lee, 2014. "Spillover Effects of Chinese Stock Markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 200-205.
    13. Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2015. "Is the financial sector Luxembourg?s engine of growth?," BCL working papers 97, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    14. Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.
    15. Liow, Kim Hiang & Schindler, Felix, 2011. "An assessment of the relationship between public real estate markets and stock markets at the local, regional, and global levels," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-056, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Kim Hiang Liow & Felix Schindler, 2014. "An Assessment of the Relationship between Public Real Estate and Stock Markets at the Local, Regional, and Global Levels," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(2), pages 157-202.

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