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Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange

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Author Info

  • Philip J. Dawson
  • Ana I. Sanju�n
  • Ben White

Abstract

Co-movement between futures prices can arise when commodities are substitutes. Counterintuitively, Dawson and White fail to find a significant long-run link between feed barley and wheat prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. This relationship is re-examined using Johansen, Mosconi, and Nielsen's co-integration procedure that permits structural breaks. Results show evidence of co-integration and hence price discovery. There is a significant break in October 2000 following Common Agricultural Policy intervention price reductions, the barley-wheat futures market is perfectly integrated, and the barley price Granger-causes the wheat price. Modeling structural breaks in price relationships appears important. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9353.2006.00324.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal Review of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 585-594

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Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:28:y:2006:i:4:p:585-594

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Cited by:
  1. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Ferto, Imre, 2008. "Price transmission on the Hungarian milk market," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44175, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Laure Bamière & Vincent Martinet & Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Stochastic viability of second generation biofuel chains: Micro-economic spatial modeling in France," Working Papers 2013/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
  3. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
  4. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Lucia BALDI & Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE, 2011. "Spot and future prices of agricultural commodities: fundamentals and speculation," Departmental Working Papers 2011-03, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  6. Roberto Esposti & Giulia Listorti, 2013. "Agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 125-139, 01.
  7. Lajos Zolt�n Bakucs & Bernhard Br�mmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Imre Fertő, 2012. "Wheat market integration between Hungary and Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 785-788, May.

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