Stochastic Viability of Second Generation Biofuel Chains: Micro-economic Spatial Modeling in France
AbstractWithin an overall project to assess the ability of the agricultural sector to contribute to bioenergy production, we set out here to examine the economic and technological viability of a bioenergy facility in an uncertain economic context, using the stochastic viability approach. We consider two viability constraints: the facility demand for lignocellulosic feedstock has to be satisfied each year and the associated supply cost has to be lower than de profitability threshold of the facility. We assess the viability probability of various supplying strategies consisting in contracting a given share of the feedstock demand with perennial dedicated crops at the initial time and then in making up each year with annual dedicated crops or wood. The demand constraints and agricultural prices scenarios over the time horizon are introduced in an agricultural and forest biomass supply model, which in turns determines the supply cost per MWh and computes the viability probabilities of the various contract strategies. A sensibility analysis to agricultural prices at initial time is performed. Results show that when they are around or under the median (of the 1993–2007 prices), the strategy consisting in contracting 100% of the feedstock supply with perennial dedicated crops is the best one.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114238.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Biofuel; Biomass production; Spatial economics; Stochastic viability; Monte Carlo simulation; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;
Other versions of this item:
- Laure BamiÃ¨re & Vincent Martinet & Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Stochastic viability of second generation biofuel chains: Micro-economic spatial modeling in France," Working Papers 2013/02, INRA, Economie Publique.
- Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
- Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2011-10-15 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2011-10-15 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rozakis, S. & Sourie, J. -C., 2005. "Micro-economic modelling of biofuel system in France to determine tax exemption policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 171-182, January.
- Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
- Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990.
"On The Behavior of Commodity Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ballarin, A. & Vecchiato, D. & Tempesta, T. & Marangon, F. & Troiano, S., 2011. "Biomass energy production in agriculture: A weighted goal programming analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1123-1131, March.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Marette, Stephan & Treguer, David, 2012.
"Opportunity for Profitable Investments in Cellulosic Biofuels,"
Staff General Research Papers
34900, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Marette, Stéphan & Tréguer, David, 2011. "Opportunity for profitable investments in cellulosic biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 714-719, February.
- Philip J. Dawson & Ana I. Sanju�n & Ben White, 2006. "Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 585-594.
- Kocoloski, Matt & Michael Griffin, W. & Scott Matthews, H., 2011. "Impacts of facility size and location decisions on ethanol production cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 47-56, January.
- In, Francis & Inder, Brett, 1997. "Long‐run Relationships Between World Vegetable Oil Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(4), December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.