This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Stacie Beck (Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Muth's (1961) rational expectations model of commodity markets implies that inventory carryover creates ARCH processes in prices. The model also indicates that the expected price variance is an explanatory variable in price regressions. Hypotheses were tested on price data of twenty commodities using a variation of Engle et al. (1987) ARCH-M technique. An ARCH process was found in storable and not in non-storable commodity data, as expected. However, changes in expected price variance have no significant impact on price. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics .
Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 115-132
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:2:p:115-132Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/
Order Information: Email: Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Beck, Stacie E, 1993.
"A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-68, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Deb, Partha & Trivedi, Pravin K & Varangis, Panayotis, 1996.
"The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices Reconsidered ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 275-91, May-June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982.
"The Economic Role of Commodity Storage ,"
Economic Journal ,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Papers
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
Other versions: McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980.
"Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-17, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
Other versions:
Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!] Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
Bollerslev, Tim, 1987.
"A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1992.
"On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices ,"
Review of Economic Studies ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices ,"
Papers
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices ,"
Papers
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990.
"On The Behavior of Commodity Prices ,"
NBER Working Papers
3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985.
"Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987.
"Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989.
"The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996.
"Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Engle, Robert F, 1982.
"Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gilbert, Christopher L., 1987.
"International commodity agreements: Design and performance ,"
World Development ,
Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 591-616, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
He, Dequan & Holt, Matt, 2004.
"Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets ,"
2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO
20344, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
[Downloadable!]
Kilima, Fredy & Chung, Chanjin & Kenkel, Phil & Mbiha, Emanuel, 2004.
"The Impact Of Market Reforms On Spatial Volatility Of Maize Price In Tanzania ,"
2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO
20332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
[Downloadable!]
Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006.
"Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion ,"
Working Papers
06-14, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008.
"Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield ,"
Cahiers de recherche
0801, GREEN.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? IDEAS is also providing many rankings , for example of authors and institutions.
This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .