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Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices

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  • Baldi, Lucia
  • Peri, Massimo
  • Vandone, Daniela

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114237
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114237.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114237

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Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty;

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References

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  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53050, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  4. Philip J. Dawson & Ana I. Sanju�n & Ben White, 2006. "Structural Breaks and the Relationship between Barley and Wheat Futures Prices on the London International Financial Futures Exchange," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(4), pages 585-594.
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  6. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters:," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  9. GIOT, Pierre, 2002. "The information content of implied volatility in agricultural commodity markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2002038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. W. Erno Kuiper & Joost M. E. Pennings, 2002. "Identification by full adjustment: evidence from the relationship between futures and spot prices," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 67-84, March.
  11. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
  12. Awokuse, Titus O., 2005. "Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 34(2), October.
  13. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  14. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
  15. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Cointegration between oil spot and future prices of the same and different grades in the presence of structural change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1687-1693, May.
  17. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
  18. Sushil Mohan & James Love, 2004. "Coffee futures: role in reducing coffee producers' price risk," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 983-1002.
  19. Fleming, Jeff & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1999. "The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 135-167, April.
  20. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  21. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  22. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  23. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
  24. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
  25. Rosamond L. Naylor & Walter P. Falcon, 2010. "Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 693-723, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.

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