Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques
AbstractIn this paper, alternative non-parametric forecasting techniques are analysed, with emphasis placed on the difference between the reconstruction and learning approaches. The former is based on Takens’ Theorem, which recovers unknown dynamic properties of a system; it is appropriate in deterministic systems. The latter is a powerful instrument in noisy systems. Both techniques are applied to the forecasting of Spanish unemployment, first one step -forecasting and second using a longer time horizon of prediction. To assess the robustness and generality of the methods we have employed unemployment time series of different European countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.
Volume (Year): 43 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Forecasting; Neural networks; Unemployment; Nonlinearity; B41; C14; C32; C45; C51; C53;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
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