Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques

Contents:

Author Info

  • Elena Olmedo

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper, alternative non-parametric forecasting techniques are analysed, with emphasis placed on the difference between the reconstruction and learning approaches. The former is based on Takens’ Theorem, which recovers unknown dynamic properties of a system; it is appropriate in deterministic systems. The latter is a powerful instrument in noisy systems. Both techniques are applied to the forecasting of Spanish unemployment, first one step -forecasting and second using a longer time horizon of prediction. To assess the robustness and generality of the methods we have employed unemployment time series of different European countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-013-9371-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

    Volume (Year): 43 (2014)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 183-197

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:183-197

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Forecasting; Neural networks; Unemployment; Nonlinearity; B41; C14; C32; C45; C51; C53;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2002. "Testing the assumption of Linearity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-9.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil & Patrice Dumas & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2008. "Business Cycles, Bifurcations and Chaos in a Neo-Classical Model with Investment Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00007196, HAL.
    3. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    4. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2010. "Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 325-345, April.
    5. Bask, Mikael, 2000. "A Positive Lyapunov Exponent in Swedish Exchange Rates?," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 528, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    6. Jorge Belaire-Franch, & Dulce Contreras & Lorena Tordera-Lledo, 2002. "Assessing Non-Linear Structures in Real Exchange Rates Using Recurrence Plot Strategies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 239, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 298-312, July.
    8. Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "On the Evidence of Non-Linear Structure in Canadian Unemployment," Macroeconomics 0311003, EconWPA.
    10. Soliman, A. S., 1996. "Transitions from stable equilibrium points to periodic cycles to chaos in a phillips curve system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 139-153.
    11. Sichel, D.E., 1988. "Business Cycle Asymmetry: A Deeper Look," Papers 85, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    12. Fanti, Luciano & Manfredi, Piero, 2007. "Neoclassical labour market dynamics, chaos and the real wage Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 470-483, March.
    13. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2007. "Nonlinearity In The Canadian And U.S. Labor Markets: Univariate And Multivariate Evidence From A Battery Of Tests," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 613-637, November.
    14. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2005. "Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Market: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from a battery of tests," Discussion Paper Series 2005_8, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Aug 2005.
    15. Annalisa Fabretti & Marcel Ausloos, 2005. "Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000," Papers physics/0505170, arXiv.org.
    16. Fabio Tramontana & Laura Gardini & Piero Ferri, 2010. "The dynamics of the NAIRU model with two switching regimes," Working Papers 1004, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2010.
    17. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
    18. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    19. repec:fth:guelph:1991-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dufourt, Frédéric & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2008. "Indeterminacy, Bifurcations, And Unemployment Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 75-89, April.
    21. Golan, Amos & Perloff, Jeffrey M., 2002. "Superior Forecasts of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Using a Nonparametric Method," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2bw559zk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    22. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    23. Costas Milas & Philip Rothman, 2007. "Out-of-Sample Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," Working Paper Series 49-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
    24. Neugart, Michael, 2004. "Complicated dynamics in a flow model of the labor market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 193-213, February.
    25. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    26. Laura Brown & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Unemployment variation over the business cycles: a comparison of forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 497-511.
    27. Mortensen, Dale T, 1999. "Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 889-914, November.
    28. Geraint Johnes, 1999. "Forecasting unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(9), pages 605-607.
    29. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "Energy sector pricing: On the role of neglected nonlinearity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 492-502, May.
    30. D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 2000. "Threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates: further evidence for the UK and G3 economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 705-715.
    31. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard & Vroomen, Bjorn, 2004. "Forecasting unemployment using an autoregression with censored latent effects parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-271.
    32. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1993. "Asymmetric business cycle turning points," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-362, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:183-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.