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Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices

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  • Claudio Bonilla
  • Rafael Romero-Meza
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

This letter applies the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test jointly with the windowed testing procedure to detect nonlinear behaviour in the rate of returns series for seven Latin American stock market indices. Our results suggest that the nonlinear serial dependencies are episodic in nature. All the stock returns series are characterized by few brief periods of highly significant nonlinearity, followed by long time periods in which the returns follow a pure noise process. Our findings help explain why there are difficulties in forecasting asset returns.

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  • Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:195-199
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500392750
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu & Angela-Maria Filip, 2009. "Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-72.
    4. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vinodh Madhavan & Partha Ray, 2018. "Evolving Efficiency of Dually-Listed Indian Stocks: A Nonlinear Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 13-35, March.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Robert Syrek, 2010. "Polish stock market and some foreign markets - dependence analysis by regime-switching copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 8, pages 21-39.
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    8. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas & Rafael Romero-Meza & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2015. "A study of co-movements between USA and Latin American stock markets: a cross-bicorrelations perspective," Papers 1503.06926, arXiv.org.
    9. Siddique, Maryam, 2023. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Exist in Equity Market? Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," OSF Preprints 9b5dx, Center for Open Science.
    10. Olmedo,E. & Velasco, F. & Valderas, J.M., 2007. "Caracterización no lineal y predicción no paramétrica en el IBEX35/Nonlinear Characterization and Predictions of IBEX 35," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 815-842, Diciembre.
    11. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
    12. Kian-Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2009. "On the validity of conventional statistical tests given evidence of nonsynchronous trading and nonlinear dynamics in returns generating process: a further note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 649-652.
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    14. Kwang-il Choe & Joshua Krausz & Kiseok Nam, 2011. "Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 323-353, April.
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    16. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
    17. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.
    18. Gourishankar S Hiremath & Bandi Kamaiah, 2010. "Nonlinear Dependence in Stock Returns: Evidences from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, January.
    19. Claudia Sanhueza & Dante Contreras & Angela Denis, 2012. "Terremoto y sus efectos sobre el bienestar: un análisis multidimensional," Working Papers 35, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad Diego Portales.
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