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Bicorrelations and Cross-Bicorrelations As Non-linearity Tests and Tools for Exchange Rate Forecasting

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  • Brooks, Chris
  • Hinich, Melvin J

Abstract

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Brooks, Chris & Hinich, Melvin J, 2001. "Bicorrelations and Cross-Bicorrelations As Non-linearity Tests and Tools for Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 181-196, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:3:p:181-96
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Romero-Meza, Rafael & Coronado, Semei & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Oil and the economy: A cross bicorrelation perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 91-95.
    2. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu & Angela-Maria Filip, 2009. "Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-72.
    3. Kian-Ping Lim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "The Weak-form Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 133-163, May.
    4. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
    5. Ender Su & John Bilson, 2011. "Trading asymmetric trend and volatility by leverage trend GARCH in Taiwan stock index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3891-3905.
    6. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    7. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas & Rafael Romero-Meza & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2015. "A study of co-movements between USA and Latin American stock markets: a cross-bicorrelations perspective," Papers 1503.06926, arXiv.org.
    8. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    9. Rodrigo A. Morales Fernández Rafaelly & Roberto J. Santillán-Salgado, 2021. "Oil price effect on sectoral stock returns: A conditional covariance and correlation approach for Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, Enero - M.
    10. Kugiumtzis Dimitris, 2008. "Evaluation of Surrogate and Bootstrap Tests for Nonlinearity in Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, March.

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