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Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000

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  • Annalisa Fabretti
  • Marcel Ausloos

Abstract

Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a dynamical system. It is shown that RP and RQA detect the critical regime in financial indices (in analogy with phase transition) before a bubble bursts, whence allowing to estimate the bubble initial time. The analysis is made on NASDAQ daily closing price between Jan. 1998 and Nov. 2003. The NASDAQ bubble initial time has been estimated to be on Oct. 19, 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Annalisa Fabretti & Marcel Ausloos, 2005. "Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2000," Papers physics/0505170, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0505170
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Aparicio & Dulce Saura, 2013. "Do Exchange Rate Series Present General Dependence? Some Results using Recurrence Quantification Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(10), pages 678-686.
    2. B. Goswami & G. Ambika & N. Marwan & J. Kurths, 2011. "On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices," Papers 1103.5189, arXiv.org.
    3. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Werneck, Filipe K., 2009. "Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1603-1609.
    4. Marcel Ausloos, 2013. "Econophysics: Comments on a Few Applications, Successes, Methods and Models," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 101-115, July.
    5. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    6. Goswami, B. & Ambika, G. & Marwan, N. & Kurths, J., 2012. "On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4364-4376.

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