Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics
AbstractThe aim of this article is the study of complex structures which are behind the short-term predictability of stock returns series. In this regard, we employ a seasonal version of the Mackey-Glass-GARCH(p,q) model, initially proposed by Kyrtsou and Terraza (2003) and generalized by Kyrtsou (2005, 2006). It has either negligible or significant autocorrelations in the conditional mean, and a rich structure in the conditional variance. To reveal short or long memory components and non-linear structures in the French Stock Exchange (CAC40) returns series, we apply the test of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), the Brock et al. (1996) and Dechert (1995) tests, the correlation-dimension method of Grassberger and Procaccia (1983), the Lyapunov exponents method of Gencay and Dechert (1992), and the Recurrence Quantification Analysis introduced by Webber and Zbilut (1994). As a confirmation procedure of the dynamics generating future movements in CAC40, we forecast the return series using a seasonal Mackey-Glass-GARCH(1,1) model. The interest of the forecasting exercise is found in the inclusion of high-dimensional non-linearities in the mean equation of returns.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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Other versions of this item:
- Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2008. "Seasonal Mackey-Glass-GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 2008_09, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G - Financial Economics
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