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Detecting positive feedback in multivariate time series: The case of metal prices and US inflation

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Author Info

  • Kyrtsou, Catherine
  • Labys, Walter C.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine causality and feedback relationships between primary commodity prices and US inflation. To this end, the bivariate noisy Mackey–Glass process recently developed by Kyrtsou and Labys [Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices, J. Macroecon. 28(1) (2006) 256–266] has been applied to assess this relationship. Results obtained support evidence in favour of causality, which can help to identify the influences of speculative price behaviour on inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

Volume (Year): 377 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 227-229

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Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:377:y:2007:i:1:p:227-229

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Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

Related research

Keywords: Positive feedback; Multivariate time series; Noisy chaos; Noisy Mackey–Glass process; Economic time series;

References

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  1. Westerhoff, Frank & Reitz, Stefan, 2005. "Commodity price dynamics and the nonlinear market impact of technical traders: empirical evidence for the US corn market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(3), pages 641-648.
  2. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
  3. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Catherine Kyrtsou & Walter C. Labys & Michel Terraza, 2004. "Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 489-502, 09.
  5. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2003. "Is it Possible to Study Chaotic and ARCH Behaviour Jointly? Application of a Noisy Mackey–Glass Equation with Heteroskedastic Errors to the Paris Stock Exchange Returns Series," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 257-276, June.
  6. Xue-Zhong He & Frank H. Westerhoff, 2004. "Commodity Markets, Price Limiters and Speculative Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 136, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2006. "Comments on "Testing for nonlinear structure and chaos in economic time series"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 169-174, March.
  8. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Catherine Kyrtsou & Michel Terraza, 2010. "Seasonal Mackey–Glass–GARCH process and short-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 325-345, April.
  2. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Vorlow, Costas, 2009. "Modelling non-linear comovements between time series," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 200-211, March.
  3. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2010. "Capital Inflows, Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatility: An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," PIDE-Working Papers 2010:63, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  4. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G., 2009. "The impact of information signals on market prices when agents have non-linear trading rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 167-176, January.
  5. Kyrtsou, Catherine, 2008. "Re-examining the sources of heteroskedasticity: The paradigm of noisy chaotic models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6785-6789.
  6. Rashid, Abdul, 2010. "Testing for nonlinear causation between capital inflows and domestic prices," MPRA Paper 26082, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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