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Indeterminacy, bifurcations and unemployment fluctuations

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Author Info

  • Frédéric Dufourt

    ()
    (BETA - Bureau d'économie théorique et appliquée - CNRS : UMR7522 - Université de Strasbourg - Université Nancy II)

  • Teresa Lloyd-Braga

    ()
    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Catolica Portuguesa)

  • Leonor Modesto

    ()
    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Catolica Portuguesa)

Abstract

We incorporate imperfectly insured unemployment in the finance constrained economy proposed by Woodford (1986), by introducing unions and unemployment benefits financed by labor taxation. We show that this simple extension of the Woodford model changes drastically its stability conditions and local dynamics around the steady state. In fact, in contrast to related models in the literature, we find that, under constant returns to scale in production: (i) indeterminacy always prevails in the case of a unitary elasticity of substitution between capital and labor; (ii) flip and Hopf bifurcations occur for empirically credible elasticities of substitution between capital and labor, so that a rich set of dynamics may emerge at "realistic" parameters' values.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00815504.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
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Publication status: Published, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2008, 12, Supplement 1, 75-89
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00815504

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00815504
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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; Indeterminacy; Bifurcations; Unemployment;

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References

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  1. G, Cazzavillan & T, Lloyd-Braga & P, A, Pintus, 1997. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Working Papers 97-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  2. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel & PINTUS, Patrick & de VILDER, Robin, 1997. "Capital-labor substitution and competitive nonlinear endogenous business cycles," CORE Discussion Papers 1997087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  4. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. " A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
  7. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-364, April.
  8. Deaton, A., 1989. "Saving And Liquidity Constraints," Papers 153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  9. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  10. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91.
  2. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," Working Papers halshs-00793213, HAL.
  4. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Negishi-Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 247-272.
  5. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
  6. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2012. "Can Taxes Stabilize the Economy in the Presence of Consumption Externalities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6876, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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