IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00815504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indeterminacy, bifurcations and unemployment fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric Dufourt

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Teresa Lloyd-Braga

    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Católica Portuguesa [Porto], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Leonor Modesto

    (FCEE - Faculdade de Ciencias Economicas e Empresariais - Universidade Católica Portuguesa [Porto], IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics)

Abstract

We incorporate imperfectly insured unemployment in the finance constrained economy proposed by Woodford (1986), by introducing unions and unemployment benefits financed by labor taxation. We show that this simple extension of the Woodford model changes drastically its stability conditions and local dynamics around the steady state. In fact, in contrast to related models in the literature, we find that, under constant returns to scale in production: (i) indeterminacy always prevails in the case of a unitary elasticity of substitution between capital and labor; (ii) flip and Hopf bifurcations occur for empirically credible elasticities of substitution between capital and labor, so that a rich set of dynamics may emerge at "realistic" parameters' values.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Dufourt & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Leonor Modesto, 2008. "Indeterminacy, bifurcations and unemployment fluctuations," Post-Print halshs-00815504, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00815504
    DOI: 10.1017/S1365100508070211
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00815504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00815504/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/S1365100508070211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    2. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    4. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. "A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
    5. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    7. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    8. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    9. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-364, April.
    10. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2016. "Endogenous Procyclicality of Labor Productivity, Employment, Real Wages and Effort in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Sunspots Unemployment Business Cycles with Negishi-Solow Efficiency Wages," Working Papers 2016:10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Jean-Michel Grandmont, "undated". "Countercyclical Endogenous Uncertainty Shocks, Efficiency Wages and Procyclical Precautionary Labor Productivity," Working Papers 2017:25, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Nicolas End, 2021. "The Prince and Me A model of Fiscal Credibility," Working Papers halshs-03222115, HAL.
    4. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    5. Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Manuel Leite-Monteiro, 2017. "Welfare benefit reforms and employment," Discussion Papers 2017/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2016. "Endogenous Procyclicality of Labor Productivity, Employment, Real Wages and Effort in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Sunspots Unemployment Business Cycles with Negishi-Solow Efficiency Wages," Working Papers 2016-06, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    7. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2012. "Can Taxes Stabilize the Economy in the Presence of Consumption Externalities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6876, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
    9. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," AMSE Working Papers 1217, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Apr 2012.
    11. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    12. Jean‐Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Negishi–Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 247-272, June.
    13. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2014. "Factor substitution and taxation in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 101-112.
    14. Abad, Nicolas & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2020. "The failure of stabilization policy: Balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Leonor Modesto, 2008. "Unions, Firing Costs, and Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 509-546, September.
    16. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Modesto, Leonor & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Dufourt, Frédéric, 2005. "Indeterminacy and Unemployment Fluctuations with Constant Returns to Scale in Production," CEPR Discussion Papers 4874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    3. Thomas Seegmuller, 2005. "Steady state analysis and endogenous fluctuations in a finance constrained model," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v05029, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    4. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    5. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Juin‐Jen Chang & Jang‐Ting Guo & Jhy‐Yuan Shieh & Wei‐Neng Wang, 2015. "Sectoral Composition Of Government Spending And Macroeconomic (In)Stability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 23-33, January.
    7. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle," Working Papers hal-03923946, HAL.
    8. Chen, Shu-Hua & Guo, Jang-Ting, 2014. "Progressive taxation and macroeconomic (in)stability with utility-generating government spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-183.
    9. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2016. "Sunspot fluctuations in two-sector models: New results with additively separable preferences," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 12(1), pages 67-83, March.
    10. Dufourt, Frédéric & Venditti, Alain & Vivès, Rémi, 2018. "On sunspot fluctuations in variable capacity utilization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 80-94.
    11. Seegmuller, Thomas, 2008. "Taste For Variety And Endogenous Fluctuations In A Monopolistic Competition Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 561-577, September.
    12. Thomas Seegmuller, 2009. "Capital–Labour Substitution And Endogenous Fluctuations: A Monopolistic Competition Approach With Variable Markup," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 301-319, September.
    13. Teresa Lloyd‐Braga & Leonor Modesto & Thomas Seegmuller, 2008. "Tax Rate Variability and Public Spending as Sources of Indeterminacy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(3), pages 399-421, June.
    14. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2013. "Indeterminacy and Sunspot Fluctuations in Two-Sector RBC models: Theory and Calibration," AMSE Working Papers 1315, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Nov 2009.
    15. Cazzavillan, Guido, 2001. "Indeterminacy and Endogenous Fluctuations with Arbitrarily Small Externalities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 133-157, November.
    16. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-364, April.
    17. Herrendorf, Berthold & Valentinyi, Akos, 2006. "On the stability of the two-sector neoclassical growth model with externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1339-1361, August.
    18. Gokan, Yoichi, 2008. "Alternative government financing and aggregate fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1650-1679, May.
    19. Fujio Takata, 2020. "The Appearance of Indeterminacy Paths-An Economy with the Balanced Budget Rule and without Depreciation," Discussion Papers 2001, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    20. Thomas Seegmuller, 2005. "On the stabilizing virtues of imperfect competition," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 1(4), pages 313-323, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00815504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.