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The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions

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Author Info

  • Eduard Hochreiter

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Austria)

  • Anton Korinek

    (Columbia University, USA)

  • Pierre L. Siklos

    (Wilfrid Laurier University and Viessmann Research Centre on Modern Europe, UK)

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of selecting alternative exchange rate regimes of countries in three regions. In particular, it studies whether Austria, the Netherlands, Canada and New Zealand made the right monetary regime choices between 1970 and 2000. We focus on the role of asymmetric shocks as a core determinant for the evaluation of various monetary regimes by studying the impact of a hard peg, a full monetary union, or floating exchange rates (with or without inflation targeting) on selected macroeconomic variables. Estimates of structural VARs are used to ascertain if the countries under review meet the essential ingredients of an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) and thus are candidates for a monetary union. Counterfactual experiments help to study economic outcomes had these countries pursued alternative monetary strategies. We conclude that a floating regime with inflation targeting is best for Canada, a monetary union with Australia is the best course of action for New Zealand, and monetary union is the appropriate choice for the Netherlands while there are reasons to believe that Austria might have been better off with a floating regime, at least for a time. We also find that good monetary policy is not confined to any particular exchange rate regime and that political and institutional factors weigh heavily in this decision. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 327-349

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:8:y:2003:i:4:p:327-349

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Cited by:
  1. Drazen Derado, 2009. "Financial Integration and Financial Crisis: Croatia Approaching The EMU," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(3), pages 299-328.
  2. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
  3. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Siklos, Pierre L., 2006. "Managed floating as a strategy to achieve selected monetary policy objectives," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 447-464.
  5. Hochreiter, Eduard & Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-211, December.
  6. Aysun, Uluc, 2008. "Automatic stabilizer feature of fixed exchange rate regimes," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 302-328, December.
  7. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
  8. Elbeck, Matt, 2010. "Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1938-1945, April.

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