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Exchange rate volatility and Currency Union: Some theory and New Zealand evidence

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Abstract

This paper considers the effect of currency union on exchange rate volatility. At a theoretical level, a simple framework is developed for thinking about volatility and exchange rate arrangements and some inferences are drawn from it. Empirically, the interaction between currency areas and exchange rate volatility is analysed by constructing counterfactual exchange rate series for the scenarios of currency union with Australia or with the United States from 1985 to 2001. We cannot confidently conclude that New Zealand's quarter-to-quarter exchange rate volatility would have been lower in a currency union with the United States or Australia. By contrast, cyclical variability in the New Zealand exchange rate has been greater over the last sixteen years than it would have been in a currency union with either Australia or the United States.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2001/dp01_4.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2001/04.

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Length: 33p
Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2001/04

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  1. Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," Scholarly Articles 11129183, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. A. Arize & J. Malindretos, 1998. "The long-run and short-run effects of exchange-rate volatility on exports: The case of Australia and New Zealand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 43-56, June.
  4. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Dollarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 381-385, May.
  6. David Hargreaves & Andy Brookes & Carrick Lucas & Bruce White, 2000. "Can hedging insulate firms from exchange rate risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
  7. Christian Hawkesby & Christie Smith & Christine Tether, 2000. "New Zealand's currency risk premium," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  9. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
  10. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Why Not a Global Currency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 243-247, May.
  12. Andrew Coleman, 1999. "Economic Integration and Monetary Union," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/06, New Zealand Treasury.
  13. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Eduard H. Hochreiter & Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "From Floating to Monetary Union: The Economic Distance between Exchange Rate Regimes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  2. Eduard Hochreiter & Anton Korinek & Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "The potential consequences of alternative exchange rate regimes: A study of three candidate regions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 327-349.
  3. Scrimgeour, Dean, 2002. "Exchange rate volatility and currency union: New Zealand evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 739-749, November.
  4. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Choice of Anchor Currency - Prospects for a Melanesian Currency Union," Working Papers 1111, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
  6. Willie Lahari, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks among Pacific Island Economies - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1001, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2010.

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