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Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries

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  • Tang, Hsiao Chink
  • Liu, Philip
  • Cheung, Eddie C.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and largely insignificant impact on output, while taxes are found to have outcomes contrary to conventional theory. Extensions using a time-varying VAR model reveal that the positive impact from higher taxes on output mainly reflects heightened concerns over public finances during the Asian financial crisis and the recent global financial crisis. On the other hand, for Thailand, there is some evidence that government spending can at times be useful as a tool for short-term countercyclical policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Hsiao Chink & Liu, Philip & Cheung, Eddie C., 2013. "Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 103-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:103-116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2012.07.003
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    2. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2021. "Fiscal policy and economic activity in South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 340-358, February.
    3. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
    5. Ghanashyama Mahanty & Dwijendra Nath Dwivedi & Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, 2023. "The Efficacy of Fiscal Vs Monetary Policies in the Asia-Pacific Region: The St. Louis Equation Revisited," Vision, , vol. 27(2), pages 256-263, April.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Riki Amir Kusnadi & Romora Edward Sitorus, 2014. "The dynamics of regional economic integration in ASEAN + 3 countries," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 439-454, September.
    8. Jin‐Li Hu & Satoshi Honma & Yu‐Kai Chen, 2021. "Total‐Factor Energy and Emission Efficiencies of ASEAN and Other Asian Economies," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 92-112, January.
    9. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 345-364, September.
    10. Sudip Basu & Clovis Freire & Pisit Puapan & Vatcharin Sirimaneetham & Yusuke Tateno, 2013. "Euro zone debt crisis: scenario analysis and implications for developing Asia-Pacific," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25.
    11. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    12. Chai-Thing Tan & Azali Mohamed & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Lee Chin, 2020. "The Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 114-130, June.
    13. Debuque-Gonzales, Margarita, 2021. "Local fiscal multipliers and spillover effects: Evidence from Philippine regions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    14. Gautam Negi, 2021. "Fiscal Impulse And Sectoral Output €“ Evidence From Indian States," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 28, pages 151-167, December.
    15. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
    16. Hong, Law Chee, 2016. "Sectoral Impact of Fiscal Policy in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 50(1), pages 81-98.
    17. Haryo Kuncoro, 2018. "A feasibility study of establishing fiscal council in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(2), pages 137-147, Oktober.
    18. Pongsudhirak, Thitinan, 2013. "Between Economic and Political Crises:Thailand’s Contested Free Trade Agreements," Working Papers 63, JICA Research Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN; Fiscal policy; Structural VAR; Time-varying VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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