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Long-Run Fiscal Multipliers for Autonomous Prefectures in China

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  • Yingxin Shi
  • Mototsugu Fukushige

Abstract

We overcome the problems of data availability and investigate the fiscal multipliers in autonomous prefectures in China. We first estimate the long-run elasticity of gross regional production with respect to fiscal expenditure in autonomous prefectures, using autoregressive distributed lag models. The estimated long-run elasticity is much less than unity, however, and the estimated fiscal multipliers for prefectures are between 0.61 and 4.93, with an average of 1.93. These results indicate that additional fiscal expenditure is still effective in increasing local income and promoting economic growth for most of the autonomous prefectures.
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  • Yingxin Shi & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2015. "Long-Run Fiscal Multipliers for Autonomous Prefectures in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 687-695, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:20:y:2015:i:5:p:687-695
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    1. Li, Rong & Zhou, Yijiang, 2021. "Estimating local fiscal multipliers using political connections," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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