IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i18p10045-d631201.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Maran Marimuthu

    (Department of Management and Humanities, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Seri Iskandar 32610, Malaysia)

  • Hanana Khan

    (Department of Management and Humanities, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Seri Iskandar 32610, Malaysia
    Department of Economics, Kohat University of Science and Technology, Kohat 26000, Pakistan)

  • Romana Bangash

    (Institute of Management Sciences (IM|Sciences), Peshawar 25000, Pakistan)

Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has faced a persistent fiscal deficit for the last three decades. In the vast literature, a question is still arising: is ASEAN’s fiscal deficit alarming? This study explores the fiscal deficit with different perspectives to provide guidelines for policymakers to answer this question. For this purpose, we offer fiscal causal hypotheses estimates, including the contribution of Government expenditures (GEs) and Government revenues (GRs) towards sustainable economic growth; we then evaluated two additional deficit hypotheses, the impact of fiscal deficit and deficit financing on inflation. This empirical analysis covered annual financial data for the years 1990 to 2019 of ten member countries of ASEAN by applying panel econometric techniques, which include unit root Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran, and Shin (IPS) tests; the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for cointegration; and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin (DH) test for causality. The findings revealed that government expenditures contribute more towards sustainable economic growth while government revenues are inversely related to growth in the long run. The DH causality test supported the fiscal synchronization hypothesis and current account targeting hypothesis in ASEAN. The interest rate is found as a moderator between fiscal and current account deficits. Furthermore, the findings showed that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN could generate inflation while relying on outstanding debt. Overall, our findings concluded that the fiscal deficit of ASEAN is alarming based on the behavior of government revenues, interest rate dynamics, political stability, and outstanding debt in deficit financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:18:p:10045-:d:631201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10045/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10045/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    2. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    3. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    4. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    5. Brueckner, Markus & Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Lederman, Daniel, 2018. "The rise of the middle class and economic growth in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 48-58.
    6. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    7. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2020. "Financing COVID-19, Inflation and the Fiscal Constraint," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 241-256, July.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. M. Chatib Basri & Hal Hill, 2020. "The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 185-209, July.
    10. Janko, Zuzana, 2020. "On the relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance: The case of Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 64-73, April.
    12. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    13. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
    14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    15. Luciano Lopez & Sylvain Weber, 2017. "Testing for Granger causality in panel data," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(4), pages 972-984, December.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2005. "The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: empirical evidence from nine Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1203-1216, January.
    17. Komain Jiranyakul, 2023. "Is the Thai government revenue-spending nexus asymmetric?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 404-419, April.
    18. Winston Pontoh, 2017. "The Capital Structure: Is Debt just a Policy or Requerement?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 128-139.
    19. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, May.
    20. Erdinc Telatar & Funda Telatar & Tarkan Cavusoglu & Umur Tosun, 2010. "Political instability, political freedom and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3839-3847.
    21. Thanapan Laiprakobsup, 2018. "Democracy, economic growth and government spending in public health in Southeast Asia," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 70-87, December.
    22. Jong Chan Lee & Yi Joong Won & Sang Young Jei, 2019. "Study of the Relationship between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth for China and Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-11, November.
    23. Wu, Shih-Ying & Tang, Jenn-Hong & Lin, Eric S., 2010. "The impact of government expenditure on economic growth: How sensitive to the level of development?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 804-817, November.
    24. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    25. Dimitrios Asteriou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2000. "The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greece," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(3), pages 355-374, November.
    26. Tang, Hsiao Chink & Liu, Philip & Cheung, Eddie C., 2013. "Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 103-116.
    27. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
    28. Andrea Cipollini, 2001. "Testing For Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 643-655, December.
    29. Chai-Thing Tan & Azali Mohamed & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Lee Chin, 2020. "The Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 114-130, June.
    30. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Norain Mod Asri & Azrina Al-Hadi Abdullah & Antoni Antoni & Zetty Zahureen Mohd.Yusoff, 2006. "The Relationship Between Federal Government Revenue and Spending: Empirical Evidence from Asean-5 Countries," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 11(2).
    31. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.
    32. Johannes A. Schwarzer, 2018. "Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the "Cruel Dilemma"," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 195-210, Winter.
    33. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    34. Obeng, Samuel, 2015. "A Causality Test of the Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in Ghana," MPRA Paper 63735, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2015.
    35. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    36. Badi H. Baltagi, 2021. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 6, number 978-3-030-53953-5, August.
    37. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2007. "Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 454-475, November.
    38. Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
    39. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    40. Makmun Syadullah, 2015. "Governance and Tax Revenue in Asean Countries," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 6(2), pages 76-88.
    41. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bayan Mohamad Alshaib & Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al khatib & Alina Cristina Nuta & Mohamad Hamra & Pradeep Mishra & Rajani Gautam & Sarfraz Hussain & Cristina Gabriela Zamfir, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and Its Implications for Economic Growth in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    2. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2022. "Comparative Study on Lower-Middle-, Upper-Middle-, and Higher-Income Economies of ASEAN for Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: A Panel Econometric Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-23, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2022. "Comparative Study on Lower-Middle-, Upper-Middle-, and Higher-Income Economies of ASEAN for Fiscal and Current Account Deficits: A Panel Econometric Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 307-321.
    3. Bayan Mohamad Alshaib & Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al khatib & Alina Cristina Nuta & Mohamad Hamra & Pradeep Mishra & Rajani Gautam & Sarfraz Hussain & Cristina Gabriela Zamfir, 2023. "Fiscal Sustainability and Its Implications for Economic Growth in Egypt: An Empirical Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    4. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Fiscal and Current Account Deficits in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Econometric Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Arvin, Mak B. & Pradhan, Rudra P. & Nair, Mahendhiran S., 2021. "Are there links between institutional quality, government expenditure, tax revenue and economic growth? Evidence from low-income and lower middle-income countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 468-489.
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    7. Hanana Khan & Maran Marimuthu & Fong-Woon Lai, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Its Less Inflationary Sources of Borrowing with the Moderating Role of Political Instability: Evidence from Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    9. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Henry Antonio Mendoza Tolosa, 2014. "Gasto Público y Crecimiento Económico regional en Colombia (1984 - 2012)," Documentos de Trabajo 12425, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    10. Chakraborty, Saptorshee Kanto & Mazzanti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Energy intensity and green energy innovation: Checking heterogeneous country effects in the OECD," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 328-343.
    11. Qiongzhi Liu & Bang Cui & Chan Luo, 2022. "A Study on the Fiscal Sustainability of China’s Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Thornton, John & Adedeji, Olumuyiwa S., 2009. "Fiscal Sustainability: Another Look at the European case," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 95-102.
    13. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & María A. Prats, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    14. Neil A. Wilmot & Ariuna Taivan, 2021. "Examining the Impact of Financial Development on Energy Production in Emerging Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, February.
    15. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    16. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201505061169 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.
    20. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:18:p:10045-:d:631201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.