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Fiscal Sustainability: Another Look at the European case

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  • Thornton, John

    ()
    (Bangor Business School, Bangor University)

  • Adedeji, Olumuyiwa S.

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Recent research using time series cointegration techniques has suggested that fi scal policy in the EU-15 countries may have been on unsustainable path during 1970-2003. However, the time series techniques employed are know to have low power in small samples. The results from employing panel cointegration techniques that have higher power in small samples indicate that government revenue and expenditure in these countries were non-stationary and cointegrated series, and that the long-run cointegrating relation was consistent with ‘strong’ fi scal sustainability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 95-102

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Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0015

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Keywords: European Union; Fiscal Policy Sustainability; Panel Cointegration;

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  1. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  2. Cipollini, Andrea, 2001. "Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 643-55, December.
  3. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  4. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  6. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics, Williams College 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  7. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  8. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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