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Fiscal Sustainability: Another Look at the European case

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Author Info

  • Thornton, John

    ()
    (Bangor Business School, Bangor University)

  • Adedeji, Olumuyiwa S.

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Recent research using time series cointegration techniques has suggested that fi scal policy in the EU-15 countries may have been on unsustainable path during 1970-2003. However, the time series techniques employed are know to have low power in small samples. The results from employing panel cointegration techniques that have higher power in small samples indicate that government revenue and expenditure in these countries were non-stationary and cointegrated series, and that the long-run cointegrating relation was consistent with ‘strong’ fi scal sustainability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 95-102

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Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0015

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Related research

Keywords: European Union; Fiscal Policy Sustainability; Panel Cointegration;

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  1. Cipollini, Andrea, 2001. "Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 643-55, December.
  2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  3. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  5. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  6. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  7. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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