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Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: A Multinomial Logit Model For Handicapping Horse Races

In: Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. D F Percy & P A Scarf, 2008. "On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(10), pages 1406-1414, October.
  2. Lo Victor S & Bacon-Shone John, 2008. "Probability and Statistical Models for Racing," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
  3. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
  4. M. Sung & J. E. V. Johnson, 2010. "Revealing Weak‐Form Inefficiency in a Market for State Contingent Claims: The Importance of Market Ecology, Modelling Procedures and Investment Strategies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 128-147, January.
  5. Johnnie Johnson & Alistair Bruce & Jiejun Yu, 2010. "The ordinal efficiency of betting markets: an exploded logit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3703-3709.
  6. David Edelman, 2007. "Adapting support vector machine methods for horserace odds prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-336, April.
  7. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  8. Ma, Tiejun & Tang, Leilei & McGroarty, Frank & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E. V, 2016. "Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 397-410.
  9. Martin S. Fridson, 1993. "I'Ve Got The Horse Right Here: Sports Betting And Market Efficiency," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(2), pages 88-90, June.
  10. Ziemba, William, 2020. "Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Kenneth L. Rhoda & Gerard T. Olson & Jack M. Rappaport, 1999. "Risk Preferences And Information Flows In Racetrack Betting Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 265-285, September.
  12. McGee, Richard J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2017. "Everyone’s a winner: The market impact of technologically advantaged agents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 95-98.
  13. Zhang, Linhan & Tang, Qingliang & Huang, Robin Hui, 2021. "Mind the Gap: Is Water Disclosure a Missing Component of Corporate Social Responsibility?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1).
  14. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
  15. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  16. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2012. "A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 163-174.
  17. Stefani Ray, 2011. "The Methodology of Officially Recognized International Sports Rating Systems," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
  18. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2009. "Identifying winners of competitive events: A SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 569-577, July.
  19. Green, Lawrence & Sung, Ming-Chien & Ma, Tiejun & Johnson, Johnnie E. V., 2019. "To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 226-239.
  20. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
  21. Jianbo Li & Minggao Gu & Tao Hu, 2012. "General partially linear varying-coefficient transformation models for ranking data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 1475-1488, January.
  22. Dave Cliff, 2021. "BBE: Simulating the Microstructural Dynamics of an In-Play Betting Exchange via Agent-Based Modelling," Papers 2105.08310, arXiv.org.
  23. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  24. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
  25. Vaughan Williams Leighton & Liu Chunping & Dixon Lerato & Gerrard Hannah, 2021. "How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 91-105, June.
  26. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
  27. Michael R. Metel, 2018. "Kelly Betting on Horse Races with Uncertainty in Probability Estimates," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 47-52, March.
  28. Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & John D. Peirson & Jiejun Yu, 2009. "An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 282-303, April.
  29. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Erhan Bayraktar & Alexander Munk, 2016. "High-Roller Impact: A Large Generalized Game Model of Parimutuel Wagering," Papers 1605.03653, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
  31. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  32. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2010. "Alternative methods of predicting competitive events: An application in horserace betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 518-536, July.
  33. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
  34. Rosenbloom, E. S., 2003. "A better probability model for the racetrack using Beyer speed numbers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 339-348, October.
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