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Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone

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  1. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. George Kopits, 2014. "Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 135-158.
  3. Avellan, Leopoldo & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Fiscal procyclicality and output forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 193-204.
  4. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
  5. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2020. "Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  6. Ardanaz, Martín & Ulloa-Suárez, Carolina & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Why don't we follow the rules? Drivers of compliance with fiscal policy rules in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  7. Hamza Bennani & Cécile Couharde & Yoan Wallois, 2024. "The effect of IMF communication on government bond markets: insights from sentiment analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(2), pages 615-656, May.
  8. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
  9. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
  10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  11. Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2017. "Strengthening Post‐Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise – A New Dataset," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 667-700, December.
  12. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2015. "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 5-17, June.
  14. End, Nicolas, 2023. "Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  15. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2016. "Stress testing the EU fiscal framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 276-293.
  16. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
  17. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Fang, Xiangming & Kim, Young & Lledó, Victor & Mbaye, Samba & Zhang, Xiaoxiao, 2019. "Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-69.
  18. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2015. "The euro crisis: Where to from here?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 428-444.
  19. Baldi, Guido, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rules, Budget Deficits, and Forecasting Biases," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 185-194.
  20. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "National numerical fiscal rules: Not complied with, but still effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 67-81.
  21. Rybacki, Jakub, 2021. "Does International Monetary Fund Favor Certain Countries During the Fiscal Forecasting – Evidence of the Institutional Biases?," MPRA Paper 107681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
  23. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2019. "When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 125-141.
  24. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?," IMF Working Papers 2021/154, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Julia del Amo Valor & Marcos Martín Mateos & Diego Martínez López & Javier J. Pérez, 2023. "Is the European economic governance framework too “complex”? A critical discussion," Working Papers 2023-06, FEDEA.
  26. Slawomir Franek, 2015. "Are Independent Fiscal Institutions Really Independent?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(3), pages 35-44.
  27. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  28. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2021. "Fiscal policy and growth forecasts in the EU: are official forecasters still misestimating fiscal multipliers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 453-462, August.
  29. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
  30. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2015. "How Quickly is News Incorporated in Fiscal Forecasts?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2802-2812.
  31. Rybacki, Jakub, 2019. "Fiscal Deficit Forecasts by International Institutions: Evidence for a Double Standard?," MPRA Paper 94031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
  33. Slawomir Franek, 2016. "Measurement of Fiscal Council Independence in the Countries of the European Union (Pomiar niezaleznosci rad fiskalnych w krajach Unii Europejskiej)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 14(63), pages 159-168.
  34. Nicolas End, 2020. "Rousseau's social contract or Machiavelli's virtue? A measure of fiscal credibility," Working Papers halshs-03078704, HAL.
  35. Kukk Merike & Staehr Karsten, 2015. "Enhanced Fiscal Governance in the European Union: The Fiscal Compact," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 73-92, February.
  36. James Cust & David Mihalyi, 2017. "Evidence for a Presource Curse? Oil discoveries, Elevated Expectations, and Growth Disappointments," OxCarre Working Papers 193, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  37. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_017 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
  39. Zhiyong An & Yilin Hou, 2020. "Debt authority and intentional overstatement of budgetary deficit: evidence from Chinese Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 461-477, April.
  40. Asatryan, Zareh & Debrun, Xavier & Heinemann, Friedrich & Horvath, Michal & Ódor, Ľudovít & Yeter, Mustafa, 2017. "Making the most of the European Fiscal Board," ZEW policy briefs 3/2017, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  41. Daniela Pirvu & Amalia Dutu & Carmen Enachescu, 2019. "Analysing Of Government'S Fiscal Behaviour In The Eu Member States Through Clustering Procedure," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 10(1), pages 23-39.
  42. Larch, Martin & Kumps, Diederik & Cugnasca, Alessandro, 2021. "Fiscal stabilisation in real time: An exercise in risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  43. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty in long-term macroeconomic forecasts: Ex post evaluation of forecasts by economics researchers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 8-15.
  44. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2017. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: follow-up, multipliers and confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
  46. Valencia, Oscar & Ulloa-Suarez, Carolina, 2022. "Numerical Compliance with Fiscal Rules in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12405, Inter-American Development Bank.
  47. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
  48. Carolina Ulloa-Suarez & Oscar Valencia, 2022. "Do governments stick to their announced fiscal rules? A study of Latin American and the Caribbean countries," Post-Print hal-03994711, HAL.
  49. Jeffrey Frankel, 2017. "How to Cope with Volatile Commodity Export Prices: Four Proposals," Growth Lab Working Papers 101, Harvard's Growth Lab.
  50. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
  51. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Ronald Miranda, 2020. "The Behaviour of Social Transfers over the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence of Uruguay," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 25-54, June.
  52. Panagiotis Liargovas & Vasilis Pilichos & Anastasia Angelopoulou, 2021. "Fiscal governance and forecasting Bias: a case study of Greece during the economic crisis," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 75-95.
  53. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2013. "The Future of the Currency Union," Working Paper Series rwp13-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  54. Carolina Ulloa-Suárez, 2023. "Determinants of compliance with fiscal rules: Misplaced efforts or hidden motivations?," Post-Print hal-04171829, HAL.
  55. Carolina Ulloa-Suárez, 2022. "Determinants of compliance with fiscal rules: misplaced efforts or hidden motivations?," AMSE Working Papers 2220, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  56. Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 101-109, January.
  57. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
  58. Claudio Columbano, 2022. "Measuring fiscal guidance transparency," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 261-296.
  59. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2019. "Assessment of EU fiscal rules with a focus on the six and two-pack legislation," Reports 2019, European Fiscal Board.
  60. David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2024. "Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 80(2), pages 165-192.
  61. Ricardo Sousa & James Yetman, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 41-67, Bank for International Settlements.
  62. Carolina Ulloa-Suárez, 2022. "Determinants of compliance with fiscal rules: misplaced efforts or hidden motivations?," Working Papers hal-03788589, HAL.
  63. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2018. "Revenue- versus spending-based consolidation plans: the role of follow-up," Working Paper Series 2178, European Central Bank.
  64. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  65. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Antonio Sánchez Fuentes, 2014. "A Tookit to strengthen Government," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 117-146, December.
  66. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
  67. Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
  68. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation : euro area analysis based on real time data," Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
  69. Mihm, Benedikt, 2018. "Biased signaling and yardstick comparisons in a sovereign debt market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 36-46.
  70. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance," Working Papers 1416, Banco de España.
  71. Paloviita, Maritta & Ikonen, Pasi, 2016. "How to explain errors in budget balance forecasts in euro area countries? Empirical evidence based on real-time data," Research Discussion Papers 17/2016, Bank of Finland.
  72. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
  73. Haffert, Lukas, 2016. "Permanent budget surpluses as a fiscal regime," MPIfG Discussion Paper 16/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
  74. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  75. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  76. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  77. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_034 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. Ulloa-Suárez, Carolina, 2023. "Determinants of compliance with fiscal rules: Misplaced efforts or hidden motivations?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  79. Slawomir Franek & Marta Postula, 2020. "Does Eurozone Membership Strengthen the Significance of Fiscal Instruments?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 21(1), pages 131-151, May.
  80. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
  81. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  82. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo.
  83. Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2016. "Design of fiscal frameworks and compliance with fiscal rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 29-40.
  84. Jalles, João Tovar & Karibzhanov, Iskander & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Cross-country evidence on the quality of private sector fiscal forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 186-201.
  85. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  86. Niall Conroy, 2023. "The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Irish Income Tax Revenue," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 149-172.
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