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Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

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Cited by:

  1. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Determination of Socially Equitable Guarantees for PPPs: A Toll-Road Case from Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2016-06, JDI Executive Programs.
  2. Odeck, James, 2017. "Government versus toll funding of road projects – A theoretical consideration with an ex-post evaluation of implemented toll projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 97-107.
  3. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
  4. Juli�n Sierra Tamayo & Jose Manuel Vassallo & María de los Ángeles Baeza, 2014. "Unbundling tolls from contracts: a new road PPP model," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 447-451, November.
  5. Hensher, David A. & Ho, Chinh Q. & Liu, Wen, 2016. "How much is too much for tolled road users: Toll saturation and the implications for car commuting value of travel time savings?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 604-621.
  6. M. Rouhani, Omid, 2015. "Revenue Risk Mitigation Options for Toll Roads," MPRA Paper 67662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
  8. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
  9. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Evaluating Minimum-Traffic Guarantees for PPPs in Turkey by Real-Option Pricing," Development Discussion Papers 2016-02, JDI Executive Programs.
  10. Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
  11. Walker, Joan L. & Chatman, Daniel & Daziano, Ricardo & Erhardt, Gregory & Gao, Song & Mahmassani, Hani & Ory, David & Sall, Elizabeth & Bhat, Chandra & Chim, Nicholas & Daniels, Clint & Gardner, Brian, 2019. "Advancing the Science of Travel Demand Forecasting," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0v1906ts, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  12. te Brömmelstroet, Marco & Skou Nicolaisen, Morten & Büttner, Benjamin & Ferreira, Antonio, 2017. "Experiences with transportation models: An international survey of planning practices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 10-18.
  13. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
  14. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  15. Casady, Carter B. & Gómez-Ibáñez, José A. & Schwimmer, Emily, 2020. "Toll-managed lanes: A simplified benefit-cost analysis of seven US projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 38-53.
  16. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 60-66.
  17. Matthew Ryan & Fl�vio Menezes, 2015. "Public-private partnerships for transport infrastructure: Some efficiency risks," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 276-295, August.
  18. Eliasson, Jonas & Börjesson, Maria & van Amelsfort, Dirk & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2013. "Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 34-46.
  19. Zinn, Jesse, 2013. "Modelling Biased Judgement with Weighted Updating," MPRA Paper 50310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Odeck, James, 2019. "Estimating and predicting the operational costs of road tolls: An econometric assessment using panel data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 466-478.
  21. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  22. Metz, David, 2021. "Economic benefits of road widening: Discrepancy between outturn and forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 312-319.
  23. Paul Timms & Miles Tight & David Watling, 2014. "Imagineering Mobility: Constructing Utopias for Future Urban Transport," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(1), pages 78-93, January.
  24. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
  25. Kenneth Button & Brien Benson, 2013. "Handling biases in forecasting when making transportation policy," Chapters, in: Thomas Vanoutrive & Ann Verhetsel (ed.), Smart Transport Networks, chapter 4, pages 49-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  26. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
  27. Lindsey, Robin & de Palma, André, 2014. "Cost recovery from congestion tolls with long-run uncertainty," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 119-132.
  28. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
  29. Miller, Michael & Szimba, Eckhard, 2015. "How to avoid unrealistic appraisal results? A concept to reflect the occurrence of risk in the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 65-75.
  30. Welde, Morten & Bråthen, Svein & Rekdal, Jens & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "Road investments and the trade-off between private and public funding," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  31. Odeck, James & Welde, Morten, 2017. "The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts: An econometric evaluation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 73-85.
  32. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Wong, S.C. & Cheng, Lin, 2015. "Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 245-251.
  33. Alejandro Ortega & Maria de los Angeles Baeza & Jose Manuel Vassallo, 2016. "Contractual PPPs for Transport Infrastructure in Spain: Lessons from the Economic Recession," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 187-206, March.
  34. Omid M. Rouhani, 2016. "Next Generations of Road Pricing: Social Welfare Enhancing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, March.
  35. Daniel Albalate & Paula Bel-Piñana, 2016. "Winners and losers in tolled motorway renegotiations: an empirical evaluation of the Spanish pioneers," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 365-372, July.
  36. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
  37. Brett Crowe, 2014. "Toll road Traffic Forecasts, Their Failures and How to Fix Them," Development Discussion Papers 2014-09, JDI Executive Programs.
  38. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.
  39. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.
  40. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
  41. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
  42. Omid M. Rouhani & H. Oliver Gao, 2016. "Evaluating Various Road Ownership Structures and Potential Competition on an Urban Road Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1019-1042, December.
  43. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
  44. Alcaraz Carrillo de Albornoz, Vicente & Sánchez Soliño, Antonio & Lara Galera, Antonio & Isabel Álvarez, José Miguel, 2021. "Bankrupt PPPs: Is it really so bad? Case study of R-3 and R-5 toll motorways in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 78-87.
  45. Emerson, David & Mulley, Corinne & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2016. "A theoretical analysis of business models for urban public transport systems, with comparative reference to a Community Franchise involving Individual Line Ownership," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 368-378.
  46. Welde, Morten, 2011. "Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 765-771, September.
  47. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
  48. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
  49. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.
  50. Salling, Kim Bang & Leleur, Steen, 2015. "Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 8-18.
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