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Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Determination of Socially Equitable Guarantees for PPPs: A Toll-Road Case from Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2016-06, JDI Executive Programs.
  2. West, Jens & Börjesson, Maria & Engelson, Leonid, 2016. "Accuracy of the Gothenburg congestion charges forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 266-277.
  3. Juli�n Sierra Tamayo & Jose Manuel Vassallo & María de los Ángeles Baeza, 2014. "Unbundling tolls from contracts: a new road PPP model," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 447-451, November.
  4. M. Rouhani, Omid, 2015. "Revenue Risk Mitigation Options for Toll Roads," MPRA Paper 67662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
  6. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 60-66.
  7. Eliasson, Jonas & Börjesson, Maria & van Amelsfort, Dirk & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2013. "Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 34-46.
  8. Zinn, Jesse, 2013. "Modelling Biased Judgement with Weighted Updating," MPRA Paper 50310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Metz, David, 2021. "Economic benefits of road widening: Discrepancy between outturn and forecast," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 312-319.
  10. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
  11. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
  12. Miller, Michael & Szimba, Eckhard, 2015. "How to avoid unrealistic appraisal results? A concept to reflect the occurrence of risk in the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 65-75.
  13. Welde, Morten & Bråthen, Svein & Rekdal, Jens & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "Road investments and the trade-off between private and public funding," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  14. Lindsey, Robin & de Palma, André, 2014. "Cost recovery from congestion tolls with long-run uncertainty," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 119-132.
  15. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
  16. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.
  17. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
  18. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
  19. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
  20. Matthew Ryan & Fl�vio Menezes, 2015. "Public-private partnerships for transport infrastructure: Some efficiency risks," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 276-295, August.
  21. Ilker Ersegun Kayhan & Glenn P. Jenkins, 2016. "Evaluating Minimum-Traffic Guarantees for PPPs in Turkey by Real-Option Pricing," Development Discussion Papers 2016-02, JDI Executive Programs.
  22. Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
  23. Walker, Joan L. & Chatman, Daniel & Daziano, Ricardo & Erhardt, Gregory & Gao, Song & Mahmassani, Hani & Ory, David & Sall, Elizabeth & Bhat, Chandra & Chim, Nicholas & Daniels, Clint & Gardner, Brian, 2019. "Advancing the Science of Travel Demand Forecasting," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0v1906ts, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  24. Casady, Carter B. & Gómez-Ibáñez, José A. & Schwimmer, Emily, 2020. "Toll-managed lanes: A simplified benefit-cost analysis of seven US projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 38-53.
  25. Kim, Kimin & Kim, JeGuk, 2025. "Beyond project segments: An econometric evaluation of traffic network volume forecasting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  26. Odeck, James, 2019. "Estimating and predicting the operational costs of road tolls: An econometric assessment using panel data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 466-478.
  27. Kenneth Button & Brien Benson, 2013. "Handling biases in forecasting when making transportation policy," Chapters, in: Thomas Vanoutrive & Ann Verhetsel (ed.), Smart Transport Networks, chapter 4, pages 49-67, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  28. Odeck, James & Welde, Morten, 2017. "The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts: An econometric evaluation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 73-85.
  29. Alejandro Ortega & Maria de los Angeles Baeza & Jose Manuel Vassallo, 2016. "Contractual PPPs for Transport Infrastructure in Spain: Lessons from the Economic Recession," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 187-206, March.
  30. Omid M. Rouhani & H. Oliver Gao, 2016. "Evaluating Various Road Ownership Structures and Potential Competition on an Urban Road Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1019-1042, December.
  31. Emerson, David & Mulley, Corinne & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2016. "A theoretical analysis of business models for urban public transport systems, with comparative reference to a Community Franchise involving Individual Line Ownership," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 368-378.
  32. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
  33. Odeck, James, 2017. "Government versus toll funding of road projects – A theoretical consideration with an ex-post evaluation of implemented toll projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 97-107.
  34. te Brömmelstroet, Marco & Skou Nicolaisen, Morten & Büttner, Benjamin & Ferreira, Antonio, 2017. "Experiences with transportation models: An international survey of planning practices," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 10-18.
  35. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  36. Paul Timms & Miles Tight & David Watling, 2014. "Imagineering Mobility: Constructing Utopias for Future Urban Transport," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(1), pages 78-93, January.
  37. Lilia Razlog & Chris Marrison & Tim Irwin, 2020. "Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees," World Bank Publications - Reports 33812, The World Bank Group.
  38. Xu, Xiangdong & Chen, Anthony & Wong, S.C. & Cheng, Lin, 2015. "Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 245-251.
  39. Lilia Razlog & Tim Irwin & Chris Marrison, 2020. "A Framework for Managing Government Guarantees," World Bank Publications - Reports 33828, The World Bank Group.
  40. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  41. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
  42. Jawad Mahmud Hoque & Gregory D. Erhardt & David Schmitt & Mei Chen & Ankita Chaudhary & Martin Wachs & Reginald R. Souleyrette, 2022. "The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 445-466, April.
  43. Alcaraz Carrillo de Albornoz, Vicente & Sánchez Soliño, Antonio & Lara Galera, Antonio & Isabel Álvarez, José Miguel, 2021. "Bankrupt PPPs: Is it really so bad? Case study of R-3 and R-5 toll motorways in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 78-87.
  44. Odeck, James, 2026. "Evaluating government road tolling initiatives ex-post: An econometric assessment with evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  45. Salling, Kim Bang & Leleur, Steen, 2015. "Accounting for the inaccuracies in demand forecasts and construction cost estimations in transport project evaluation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 8-18.
  46. Hensher, David A. & Ho, Chinh Q. & Liu, Wen, 2016. "How much is too much for tolled road users: Toll saturation and the implications for car commuting value of travel time savings?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 604-621.
  47. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick A. Driscoll, 2016. "An International Review of Ex-Post Project Evaluation Schemes in the Transport Sector," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-33, March.
  48. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
  49. Omid M. Rouhani, 2016. "Next Generations of Road Pricing: Social Welfare Enhancing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, March.
  50. Daniel Albalate & Paula Bel-Piñana, 2016. "Winners and losers in tolled motorway renegotiations: an empirical evaluation of the Spanish pioneers," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 365-372, July.
  51. Brett Crowe, 2014. "Toll road Traffic Forecasts, Their Failures and How to Fix Them," Development Discussion Papers 2014-09, JDI Executive Programs.
  52. Zapico, Emma & Baños-Pino, José F. & Mayor, Matías, 2024. "Optimal toll rates accounting for traffic accidents: A productive efficiency approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
  53. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.
  54. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
  55. Welde, Morten, 2011. "Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 765-771, September.
  56. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.
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