IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v24y2012icp60-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zheng
  • Hensher, David A.

Abstract

Traditionally, the empirical valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) is obtained from a linear utility specification in a discrete choice model, which implicitly assumes a risk-neutral attitude. This paper draws on recent contributions by the authors that accommodate the attitude towards risk within a non-linear utility specification as a preferred framework within which to value travel time savings. The interest in the non-linear form is motivated by the evidence in Hensher et al. (2011) that mean estimates of VTTS in a proposed toll road context are significantly lower when account is taken of risk attitude. The percentage reduction in the estimate of mean VTTS is approximately (coincidentally) equal to the actual percentage error in traffic forecasts associated with the new tollroad two years after opening. If we could show that this evidence of a lower mean estimate under the non-linear treatment is found in other data settings, then we gain confidence in suggesting that the linear-utility assumption to valuing travel time savings might be a potential contributor to over-predicted tollroad traffic forecasts. The non-linear model is applied herein to two other tollroad choice data sets and we find that sampled car commuters tend to be risk taking when decision making is subject to risk (due to the presence of variability in travel times). The model produces lower mean VTTS estimates than the traditional (linear) model, providing additional evidence of a systematic over-prediction of VTTS under the linear assumption. This paper suggests that future empirical studies on valuing time savings (and variability) should address the attitude towards risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Estimating values of travel time savings for toll roads: Avoiding a common error," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 60-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:60-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.06.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X12001096
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.06.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    2. Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
    3. Hensher, David A. & Goodwin, Phil, 2004. "Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 171-181, April.
    4. Kenneth A. Small & Clifford Winston & Jia Yan, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1367-1382, July.
    5. Train, Kenneth & Wilson, Wesley W., 2008. "Estimation on stated-preference experiments constructed from revealed-preference choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 191-203, March.
    6. Zheng Li & Alejandro Tirachini & David A. Hensher, 2012. "Embedding Risk Attitudes in a Scheduling Model: Application to the Study of Commuting Departure Time," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 170-188, May.
    7. Welde, Morten, 2011. "Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 765-771, September.
    8. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    9. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Zheng, 2018. "Unobserved and observed heterogeneity in risk attitudes: Implications for valuing travel time savings and travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-18.
    2. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    3. Xingyuan Li & Jing Bai, 2021. "A Ridesharing Choice Behavioral Equilibrium Model with Users of Heterogeneous Values of Time," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Zheng, 2018. "Unobserved and observed heterogeneity in risk attitudes: Implications for valuing travel time savings and travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-18.
    2. Zheng Li, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Socioeconomic Differences in Risk‐Taking and Risk Premiums," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 140-152, June.
    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Dixit, Vinayak V. & Harb, Rami C. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2015. "Measuring risk aversion to guide transportation policy: Contexts, incentives, and respondents," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 15-34.
    5. Beaud, Mickael & Blayac, Thierry & Stéphan, Maïté, 2016. "The impact of travel time variability and travelers’ risk attitudes on the values of time and reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 207-224.
    6. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    7. Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2016. "Impact of information on risk attitudes: Implications on valuation of reliability and information," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 16-34.
    8. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    9. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2016. "The cost of travel time variability: Three measures with properties," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 555-564.
    10. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    11. Kenneth Small, 2015. "The Bottleneck Model: An Assessment and Interpretation," Working Papers 141506, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    12. Yu, Xiaojuan & van den Berg, Vincent A.C. & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2023. "Congestion pricing and information provision under uncertainty: Responsive versus habitual pricing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    14. Canales, Elizabeth & Bergtold, Jason S. & Williams, Jeffery & Peterson, Jeffrey, 2015. "Estimating farmers’ risk attitudes and risk premiums for the adoption of conservation practices under different contractual arrangements: A stated choice experiment," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205640, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Mickaël Beaud & Thierry Blayac & Maïté Stéphan, 2014. "Measurements and properties of the values of time and reliability," Working Papers 14-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Jul 2014.
    16. Raux, Charles & Souche, Stéphanie & Pons, Damien, 2012. "The efficiency of congestion charging: Some lessons from cost–benefit analyses," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 85-92.
    17. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2016. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 120-131, February.
    18. Small, Kenneth A., 2015. "The bottleneck model: An assessment and interpretation," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 110-117.
    19. Zheng Li & Alejandro Tirachini & David A. Hensher, 2012. "Embedding Risk Attitudes in a Scheduling Model: Application to the Study of Commuting Departure Time," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 170-188, May.
    20. Fu, Jianhua & Zhang, Yongqing, 2020. "Valuation of travel time reliability: Considering the traveler's adaptive expectation with an indifference band on daily trip duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 337-353.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:60-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.