Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects
Inaccurate forecasts represent a major source of risk in road and toll projects because they could result in financial difficulties or even bankruptcy. This paper focuses on demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for Norwegian toll projects by comparing the forecasted and actual levels of traffic and operating costs. The differences among the types of projects and the effects of project size, time and demand ramp-up are also examined. Our study finds that traffic forecasts for Norwegian toll projects are fairly accurate, on average. However, a majority of the investigated projects experienced overestimation, and a huge general error in the forecasts suggests that this is also a source of risk that merits greater scrutiny. Inaccuracies are common among all project types and sizes. Operating costs are frequently underestimated; on average, these costs are about 30% higher than estimated.
Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raux, Charles, 2005. "Comments on 'The London congestion charge: a tentative economic appraisal' ()," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 368-371, July.
- Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
- Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
- Gunnar Bårdsen & Erik Amdal & Kåre Johansen & Morten Welde, 2006.
"Operating costs in Norwegian toll companies: A panel data analysis,"
Working Paper Series
6906, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- Erik Amdal & Gunnar Bårdsen & Kåre Johansen & Morten Welde, 2007. "Operating costs in Norwegian toll companies: a panel data analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(6), pages 681-695, November.
- Odeck, James, 2008. "How efficient and productive are road toll companies?: Evidence from Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 232-241, July.
- Odeck, James & Bråthen, Svein, 2002. "Toll financing in Norway: The success, the failures and perspectives for the future," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 253-260, July.
- Eliasson, Jonas, 2009. "A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 468-480, May.
- Mackie, Peter, 2005. "The London congestion charge: A tentative economic appraisal. A comment on the paper by Prud'homme and Bocajero," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 288-290, May.
- Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
- Anguera, Ricard, 2006. "The Channel Tunnel--an ex post economic evaluation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 291-315, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:18:y:2011:i:5:p:765-771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.