Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts
This paper compares forecasted effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided “experts’ judgments”, but that results must be interpreted taking the model’s limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecasted to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.
|Date of creation:||21 Dec 2012|
|Publication status:||Published as Eliasson, Jonas, Dirk van Amelsfort, Maria Börjesson, Karin Brundell-Freij and Leonid Engelson, 'Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts' in Transportation Research A, 2013, pages 34-46.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden|
Web page: http://www.cts.kth.se/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson, 2008.
"Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy,"
201005, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
- Eliasson, Jonas, 2009. "A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 468-480, May.
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges – five years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
- Eliasson, Jonas, 2008. "Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charging trial," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 395-404, November.
- Jonathan Leape, 2006. "The London Congestion Charge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 157-176, Fall.
- Eliasson, Jonas & Hultkrantz, Lars & Nerhagen, Lena & Rosqvist, Lena Smidfelt, 2009. "The Stockholm congestion - charging trial 2006: Overview of effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 240-250, March.
- Lasse Fridstrøm & Harald Minken & Paavo Moilanen & Simon Shepherd & Arild Vold, 2000. "Economic and Equity Effects of Marginal Cost Pricing in Transport," Research Reports 71, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
- Karlström, Anders & Franklin, Joel P., 2009. "Behavioral adjustments and equity effects of congestion pricing: Analysis of morning commutes during the Stockholm Trial," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 283-296, March.
- Eliasson, Jonas & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2006. "Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 602-620, August.
- Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel B. & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges—5 years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-12.
- Bert van Wee, 2007. "Large infrastructure projects: a review of the quality of demand forecasts and cost estimations," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(4), pages 611-625, July.
- Rich, Jeppe & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2007. "A socio-economic assessment of proposed road user charging schemes in Copenhagen," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 330-345, July.
- de Palma, André & Lindsey, Robin & Niskanen, Esko, 2006.
"Policy insights from the urban road pricing case studies,"
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 149-161, March.
- DE PALMA, André & LINDSEY, Robin & NISKANEN, Esko, "undated". "Policy insights from the urban road pricing case sudies," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1881, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Eliasson, Jonas & Jonsson, Lina, 2011. "The unexpected "yes": Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 636-647, August.
- Börjesson, Maria & Kristoffersson, Ida, 2012. "Estimating welfare effects of congestion charges in real world settings," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:13, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mats Berggren)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.