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What predicts U.S. recessions?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "Forecasting Deflation Probability in the EA: A Combinatoric Approach," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
  2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
  3. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
  4. Goodhead, Robert & Parle, Conor, 2019. "Predicting Recessions in the Euro Area: A Factor Approach," Economic Letters 2/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
  5. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
  6. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
  7. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  8. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
  9. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
  10. repec:wrk:wrkemf:38 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Michael Puglia & Adam Tucker, 2020. "Machine Learning, the Treasury Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Ihejirika, Peters. O, 2020. "Does the Credit-to-GDP Gap Predict Financial Crisis in Nigeria?," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 109-126, June.
  13. Min Jeong Kim & Dohyoung Kwon, 2023. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy: an economic regime approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 136-147, March.
  14. Dongfeng Chang & Ryan S. Mattson & Biyan Tang, 2019. "The Predictive Power of the User Cost Spread for Economic Recession in China and the US," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
  15. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
  16. Marius M. Mihai, 2020. "Do credit booms predict US recessions?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 887-910, September.
  17. van Os, Bram & van Dijk, Dick, 2024. "Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 313-323.
  18. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
  19. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2024. "Out-of-sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1166-1178.
  20. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  21. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2024. "Low interest rates and the predictive content of the yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  22. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Owyang, 2022. "Forecasting low‐frequency macroeconomic events with high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1314-1333, November.
  23. Martins, Manuel M.F. & Verona, Fabio, 2021. "Bond vs. bank finance and the Great Recession," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  24. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
  25. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "On the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts: evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 884-900, April.
  26. Heinrich, Markus, 2020. "Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach," EconStor Preprints 219312, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  27. Tim Meyer, 2019. "On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 457-488, April.
  28. Harold M. Hastings & Tai Young-Taft & Thomas Wang, 2019. "When to Ease Off the Brakes--and Hopefully Prevent Recessions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_929, Levy Economics Institute.
  29. Heiberger, Raphael H., 2018. "Predicting economic growth with stock networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 102-111.
  30. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  31. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  32. Cem Çakmakli & Hamza Dem I˙rcani & Sumru Altug, 2021. "Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 663-685, June.
  33. Lauri Nevasalmi, 2022. "Recession forecasting with high‐dimensional data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 752-764, July.
  34. Nguena, Christian-Lambert & Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2020. "On Recessive and Expansionary Impact of Financial Development: Empirical Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 555, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  35. Hwang, Youngjin, 2019. "Forecasting recessions with time-varying models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  36. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Term Spread Spillovers to Latin America and Emergence of the ‘Twin Ds’," Documentos de trabajo 21169, FLAR.
  37. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
  38. Kazutaka Kurasawa, 2017. "Forecasting US recession with the economic policy uncertainty indexes of policy categories," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 100-109.
  39. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza & Antonio Moreno & Tommaso Trani, 2024. "Downturns and changes in the yield slope," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 673-701, April.
  40. Chatterjee, Ujjal K. & Zirgulis, Aras & Hüttinger, Maik & French, Joseph J., 2024. "Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  41. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
  42. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Maas, Benedikt, 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting US recessions: Evidence from the Super Learner," MPRA Paper 96408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2017. "Predicting recessions with boosted regression trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 745-759.
  45. Seulki Chung, 2023. "Real-time Prediction of the Great Recession and the Covid-19 Recession," Papers 2310.08536, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  46. Stein, Tobias, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium with frequency-decomposed technical indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 6-28.
  47. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
  48. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  49. Zihao Wang & Kun Li & Steve Q. Xia & Hongfu Liu, 2021. "Economic Recession Prediction Using Deep Neural Network," Papers 2107.10980, arXiv.org.
  50. Christian-Lambert Nguena & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "Zu rezessiven und expansiven Auswirkungen der Finanzentwicklung: empirische Beweise [On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence]," Post-Print hal-04228903, HAL.
  51. Han, Yang & Jiao, Anqi & Ma, Jun, 2021. "The predictive power of Nelson–Siegel factor loadings for the real economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-127.
  52. Christian-Lambert Nguena, Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2023. "On recessive and expansionary impact of financial development: empirical evidence," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(1), pages 97-130, June.
  53. Martin Iseringhausen & Ms. Mwanza Nkusu & Wellian Wiranto, 2019. "Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2019/245, International Monetary Fund.
  54. Diptes C. P. Bhimjee, 2022. "Adaptive Early Warning Systems: An Axiomatic Approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 145-164.
  55. Qin Zhang & He Ni & Hao Xu, 2023. "Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy in a data‐rich environment: Evidence from large dimensional approximate factor models with mixed‐frequency data," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(1), pages 719-767, March.
  56. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
  57. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2024. "Predicting recessions using VIX–yield curve cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 409-422.
  58. Jaehyuk Choi & Desheng Ge & Kyu Ho Kang & Sungbin Sohn, 2023. "Yield spread selection in predicting recession probabilities," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1772-1785, November.
  59. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Onur Polat, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions Using Over 150 Years of Data: Stock-Market Moments versus Oil-Market Moments," Working Papers 202435, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  60. Borio, Claudio & Drehmann, Mathias & Xia, Fan Dora, 2020. "Forecasting recessions: the importance of the financial cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  61. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
  62. Mikhail E. MAMONOV, Anna A. PESTOVA, Vera PANKOVA, Renat Akhmetov, 2020. "Digital Transformation of Capital Market Infrastructure [Цифровая Трансформация Инфраструктуры Рынка Капитала]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 130-159, November.
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