IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/eee/intfor/v27y2011i2p561-578.html

Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 79-87.
  2. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
  3. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2023. "Forecasting NFT coin prices using machine learning: Insights into feature significance and portfolio strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  4. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
  5. Liu, Jiadong & Papailias, Fotis & Quinn, Barry, 2021. "Direction-of-change forecasting in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  6. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
  7. Haibin Xie & Yuying Sun & Pengying Fan, 2023. "Return direction forecasting: a conditional autoregressive shape model with beta density," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
  8. Basak, Suryoday & Kar, Saibal & Saha, Snehanshu & Khaidem, Luckyson & Dey, Sudeepa Roy, 2019. "Predicting the direction of stock market prices using tree-based classifiers," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 552-567.
  9. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Baruník, Jozef, 2019. "Forecasting dynamic return distributions based on ordered binary choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 823-835.
  10. Papailias, Fotis & Liu, Jiadong & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2021. "Return signal momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  11. Perry Sadorsky, 2021. "Predicting Gold and Silver Price Direction Using Tree-Based Classifiers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, April.
  12. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2017. "A multi-factor predictive model for oil-US stock nexus with persistence, endogeneity and conditional heteroscedasticity effects," Working Papers 024, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
  14. Gu, Wentao & Peng, Yiqing, 2019. "Forecasting the market return direction based on a time-varying probability density model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  15. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yayi Yan, 2023. "Estimation and Inference for a Class of Generalized Hierarchical Models," Papers 2311.02789, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
  16. Huei-Wen Teng & Yu-Hsien Li, 2023. "Can deep neural networks outperform Fama-MacBeth regression and other supervised learning approaches in stock returns prediction with asset-pricing factors?," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 149-182, March.
  17. Harri Pönkä, 2017. "Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1451-1480, June.
  18. Harri Pönkä, 2018. "Sentiment and sign predictability of stock returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1676-1684.
  19. Luis H. R. Alvarez E. & Paavo Salminen, 2017. "Timing in the presence of directional predictability: optimal stopping of skew Brownian motion," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 86(2), pages 377-400, October.
  20. James W. Taylor & Keming Yu, 2016. "Using auto-regressive logit models to forecast the exceedance probability for financial risk management," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(4), pages 1069-1092, October.
  21. Thomas Bury, 2013. "Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state," Papers 1310.8169, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
  22. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2023. "Forecasting rare earth stock prices with machine learning," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
  23. Sadorsky, Perry, 2022. "Forecasting solar stock prices using tree-based machine learning classification: How important are silver prices?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  24. Pawel Dlotko & Wanling Qiu & Simon Rudkin, 2022. "Topological Data Analysis Ball Mapper for Finance," Papers 2206.03622, arXiv.org.
  25. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
  26. Rongning Wu & Yunwei Cui, 2014. "A Parameter-Driven Logit Regression Model For Binary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 462-477, August.
  27. Becker, Janis & Leschinski, Christian, 2018. "Directional Predictability of Daily Stock Returns," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-624, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  28. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
  29. Straetmans, S.T.M. & Candelon, B. & Ahmed, J., 2012. "Predicting and capitalizing on stock market bears in the U.S," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  30. Ginker, Tim & Lieberman, Offer, 2017. "Robustness of binary choice models to conditional heteroscedasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 130-134.
  31. Erol Eğrioğlu & Robert Fildes, 2022. "A New Bootstrapped Hybrid Artificial Neural Network Approach for Time Series Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 1355-1383, April.
  32. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
  33. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset, 2013. "Return sign forecasts based on conditional risk: Evidence from the UK stock market index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2342-2353.
  34. Maung, Kenwin & Swanson, Norman R., 2025. "A survey of models and methods used for forecasting when investing in financial markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1355-1382.
  35. Yang Lu, 2020. "A simple parameter‐driven binary time series model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
  36. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2019. "Ask CARL: Forecasting tail probabilities for energy commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  37. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I. & Vlastakis, Nikolaos, 2018. "Information demand and stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
  38. Campisi, Giovanni & Muzzioli, Silvia & De Baets, Bernard, 2024. "A comparison of machine learning methods for predicting the direction of the US stock market on the basis of volatility indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 869-880.
  39. Perry Sadorsky, 2021. "A Random Forests Approach to Predicting Clean Energy Stock Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, January.
  40. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
  41. de Resende, Charlene C. & Pereira, Adriano C.M. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2017. "Investigating market efficiency through a forecasting model based on differential equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 199-212.
  42. Syed Abul, Basher & Perry, Sadorsky, 2022. "Forecasting Bitcoin price direction with random forests: How important are interest rates, inflation, and market volatility?," MPRA Paper 113293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Truquet, Lionel, 2019. "On categorical time series models with covariates," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3446-3462.
  44. Bury, Thomas, 2014. "Predicting trend reversals using market instantaneous state," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 404(C), pages 79-91.
  45. Garcia, M.M. & Machado Pereira, A.C. & Acebal, J.L. & Bosco de Magalhães, A.R., 2020. "Forecast model for financial time series: An approach based on harmonic oscillators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
  46. Gao, Jiti & Liu, Fei & Peng, Bin & Yan, Yayi, 2023. "Binary response models for heterogeneous panel data with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1654-1679.
  47. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  48. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
  49. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2017. "Stock return predictability in emerging markets: Does the choice of predictors and models matter across countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 39-60.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.