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Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States
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Cited by:
- Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015.
"The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time,"
International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Kavan J. Kucko, 2010. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," NBER Working Papers 16398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
- Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001.
"La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?,"
Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l’information sur l’activité économique future ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
- Frédéric Sedillot, 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
- Wang,Dieter, 2021. "Natural Capital and Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9606, The World Bank.
- Alfred A. Haug & Pierre L. Siklos, 2002. "The Term Spread International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Working Papers 2002_08, York University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
- Martin Motl, 2019. "The inverted yield curve in the USA: How much time is left until a recession?," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2019, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
- Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
- Jardet, Caroline, 2004.
"Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
- Caroline Jardet, 2002. "Why did the Term Structure of Interest Rates Lose its Predictive Power ?," Working Papers 2002-05, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008.
"Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?,"
Research Technical Papers
2/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Andersson, Magnus & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2008. "Are sectoral stock prices useful for predicting euro area GDP?," Working Paper Series 876, European Central Bank.
- Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & N. S. Cooray, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 25-56, June.
- De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
- Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
- Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
- Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Haug Alfred A & Siklos Pierre L, 2006. "The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-34, December.
- Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato.
- Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
- Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
- Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005.
"The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment,"
BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92,
Bank for International Settlements.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(2), pages 318-342, July.
- Javier Gómez, 2007. "Changes in the Informational Content of the Spread: Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Faculty Working Papers 05/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Somya Tyagi & Sikandar Siddiqui, 2017. "Yield Curve and Momentum Effects in Monthly U.S. Equity Returns: Some Nonparametric Evidence," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(2), pages 61-67.
- Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
- Siklos, Pierre L, 2000.
"Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
- Pierre Siklos, 1999. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia vs. the US," Research Paper Series 25, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021.
"Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
- Joseph G. Haubrich, 2020. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Working Papers 20-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017.
"Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey,"
CAMA Working Papers
2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1718, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Claessens,Stijn & Kose,Ayhan, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8259, The World Bank.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:94:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ludger Lindlar & Wolfgang Scheremet, 1998. "Germany's Slump Explaining the Unemployment Crisis of the 1990s," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 169, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Nikola A. Tarashev, 2008.
"An Empirical Evaluation of Structural Credit-Risk Models,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 1-53, March.
- Nikola A. Tarashev, 2005. "An empirical evaluation of structural credit risk models," BIS Working Papers 179, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mohamed Z. M. Aazim & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Yield Curve Dynamics in an Emerging Market: Sri Lankan Perspectives," Working Papers EMS_2010_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Jorg Bibow, 2001.
"Making EMU Work: Some lessons from the 1990s,"
International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 233-259.
- Jorg Bibow, 2001. "Making EMU Work: Some Lessons from the 1990s," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_326, Levy Economics Institute.
- Jörg Bibow, 2001. "Making EMU Work: Some Lessons from the 1990s," Macroeconomics 0103008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tomáš Holub & JaromÃr HurnÃk, 2008. "Ten Years of Czech Inflation Targeting: Missed Targets and Anchored Expectations," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 67-86, November.
- Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: A multicountry regime-switching analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
- Alois Geyer & Richard Mader, 1999. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates - A parametric approach," Working Papers 37, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:37:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Menachem Brenner & Meir Sokoler, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from the Financial Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 295-311.
- Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
- Martin Motl, 2023. "The inverted yield curve: economic recession on the horizon," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - April 2023, pages 13-19, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.