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Euler equations and money market interest rates: The role of monetary and risk premium shocks

Author

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  • Gareis, Johannes
  • Mayer, Eric

Abstract

This paper challenges the view that the observed negative correlation between the Federal Funds rate and the interest rate implied by consumption Euler equations is systematically linked to monetary policy. By using a Monte Carlo experiment, we show that stochastic risk premium disturbances have the capability to drive a wedge between the interest rate targeted by the central bank and the implied Euler equation interest rate such that the correlation between actual and implied rates is negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric, 2012. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: The role of monetary and risk premium shocks," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 89, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Dennis, 2009. "Consumption Habits in a New Keynesian Business Cycle Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 1015-1030, August.
    2. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    4. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Ahmad, Yamin, 2005. "Money market rates and implied CCAPM rates: some international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 699-729, September.
    7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-266, January.
    8. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2012. "Euler equations and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-5.
    10. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
    11. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euler Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Risk Premium Shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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