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Climate Change and the Relocation of Population

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  • Gröschl, Jasmin

Abstract

Do natural disasters trigger intensified international migration? The aim of this paper is to assess the extent to which disasters initiate bilateral migration. To motivate the empirical strategy, I construct a stylized theoretical gravity model of migration that introduces disasters as random shocks. I present estimations that deploy a dataset of bilateral migration available for increments of 10 years from 1960-2010 for a large matrix of countries. Results suggest that disasters are on average positively associated with migration out of affected areas, but negatively for migration into affected countries. In addition, I show that results are primarily caused by disasters related to climate change. Migration to and from non-OECD and particularly middle income countries drive the patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gröschl, Jasmin, 2012. "Climate Change and the Relocation of Population," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66058, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc12:66058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    2. Barnett, Jon & Webber, Michael, 2010. "Accommodating migration to promote adaptation to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5270, The World Bank.
    3. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    4. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    5. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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