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Risiken für die Emerging Markets in Mittel- und Osteuropa vor dem Hintergrund der Erfahrungen Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittskandidaten zur EU

  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen von Finanzmarktkrisen anhand entsprechender Vorkommnisse in Thailand, Mexiko und Tschechien, um risikoreiche Konstellationen für Emerging Markets zu identifizieren. Als Modell wurde der Ansatz von Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996) gewählt, der durch Einbeziehung von Kreditrationierung und Haftungsbeschränkung erweitert und modifiziert wurde. Aus diesen Überlegungen heraus wurden Indikatoren für die Prognose von Währungskrisen abgeleitet und anhand der Beispiele Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens berechnet.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 1999,3.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:19993
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    1. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 1999. "Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," CSGR Working papers series 35/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
    2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bernd Schnatz, 2000. "Speculative attacks in emerging markets: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 35(2), pages 81-89, March.
    4. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
    8. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
    9. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    11. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises; The Mexican Experience," IMF Working Papers 95/112, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. William C. Gruben, 1996. "Policy priorities and the Mexican exchange rate crisis," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 19-29.
    14. Erwin W. Heri, 1986. "Irrationales rational gesehen: Eine Übersicht über die Theorie der "Bubbles"," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 122(II), pages 163-186, June.
    15. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May.
    16. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
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