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Risiken für die Emerging Markets in Mittel- und Osteuropa vor dem Hintergrund der Erfahrungen Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens ; Beitrag für den Projektbericht: Währungspolitische Optionen für die mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittskandidaten zur EU

  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen von Finanzmarktkrisen anhand entsprechender Vorkommnisse in Thailand, Mexiko und Tschechien, um risikoreiche Konstellationen für Emerging Markets zu identifizieren. Als Modell wurde der Ansatz von Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996) gewählt, der durch Einbeziehung von Kreditrationierung und Haftungsbeschränkung erweitert und modifiziert wurde. Aus diesen Überlegungen heraus wurden Indikatoren für die Prognose von Währungskrisen abgeleitet und anhand der Beispiele Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens berechnet.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 1999,3.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:19993
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    1. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-62, January.
    6. Sachs, J. & Tornell, A. & Velasco, A., 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," Working Papers 96-20, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    7. George A. Akerlof & Paul M. Romer, 1993. "Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 1-74.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    9. Inci Ötker & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises; The Mexican Experience," IMF Working Papers 95/112, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bernd Schnatz, 2000. "Speculative attacks in emerging markets: The role of macroeconomic fundamentals," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 81-89, March.
    11. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Erwin W. Heri, 1986. "Irrationales rational gesehen: Eine Übersicht über die Theorie der "Bubbles"," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 122(II), pages 163-186, June.
    13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    15. William C. Gruben, 1996. "Policy priorities and the Mexican exchange rate crisis," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 19-29.
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