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Similarities and Differences of The 1994 and 2001 Turkish Currency Crises: A Signal Approach

In: Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World

  • Þakir Görmüþ

    (Adnan Menderes University)

  • Recep Tekeli

    (Adnan Menderes University)

  • Osman Peker

    (Adnan Menderes University)

The paper will examine the 1994 and 2001 Turkish currency crises by using early warning system which is based on the “signal” approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (KLR) (1998). The “signal” approach is a non-parametric approach. In this approach, the behavior of a number of individual variables is monitored and they are evaluated against a certain threshold levels. If any of these indicator exceeds its threshold, it is said that indicator issues a “signal” that a currency crisis may occur within a given period. The objectives of this paper are two folds: to investigate causes of currency crises under consideration and to compare similarities and differences of the 1994 and 2001 currency crises. The data consist of monthly data and range from January 1987 to November 2005 for the following variables: reserves, inflation rate, GDP growth, portfolio capital inflow to reserves, short term external debt to reserves, domestic debt, money supply to reserves, current account to GDP, real exchange rate overvaluation, regional stock market return, regional market pressure index, stock market index, export and import. Results showed that 2001 crisis is deeper and costlier than 1994 crisis, external factors play more imported role in 2001 crisis than 1994 crisis and in both crises Weighted Composite Index increases sharply previous the both crises.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), 2008. "Proceedings of the International Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World," Proceedings of the IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, Izmir University of Economics, number 2008, October.
  • This item is provided by Izmir University of Economics in its series Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics with number 200815.
    Handle: RePEc:izm:prcdng:200815
    Contact details of provider: Fax: (90) 232 279 2626
    Web page: http://eco.ieu.edu.tr
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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Stulz, Rene M, 1986. " Asset Pricing and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 209-23, March.
    4. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    8. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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