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Employment, partnership and childbearing decisions of German women and men: A simultaneous hazards approach

  • Niedergesäss, Markus
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    This paper investigates the interrelated dynamics of employment, cohabitation and fertility for German women and men. Using a simultaneous hazards approach due to Lillard (1993), I estimate a five-equation model with unobserved heterogeneity. One of the contributions of this paper is to include the current employment and nonemployment hazard rates and the union formation and union dissolution hazard rates as regressors. My results suggest that being employed or nonemployed only has small effects on other transitions, but that employed women with a high hazard of becoming nonemployed are less likely to have children, while nonemployed men having a low hazard of finding a job are more likely to have children. Children reduce the hazard of taking up a job for women and reduce the hazard of becoming nonemployed for women and men. Children also increase the stability of unions. Having a partner strongly increases the likelihood for having children. Interestingly, unions with a high risk of splitting up are more likely to have children. Economically, this can be interpreted as an attempt to invest in partner-specification capital in order to reduce the likelihood of splitting up.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/69502/1/73624381X.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences in its series University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 51.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuewef:51
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    1. Aassve, Arnstein & Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Propper, Carol, 2003. "Employment, Family Union and Childbearing Decisions in Great Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 4011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2008. "Clash of Career and Family: Fertility Decisions after Job Displacement," CESifo Working Paper Series 2180, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Marcus Eliason, 2012. "Lost jobs, broken marriages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1365-1397, October.
    5. Jacobi, Lena & Kluve, Jochen, 2007. "Before and after the Hartz reforms: The performance of active labour market policy in Germany," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 40(1), pages 45-64.
    6. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    7. Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2011. "Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 641-668, 06.
    8. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    9. Ahn, N. & Mira, P., 1999. "A Note on the Changing Relationship Between Fertility and Female Employment Rates in Developed Countries," Papers 9903, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    10. Michael J. Brien & Lee A. Hillard & Linda Waite, . "Cohabitation, Marriage, and Non-Fertility," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 97-5, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    11. Corinna Kleinert & Britta Matthes & Manfred Antoni & Katrin Drasch & Michael Ruland & Annette Trahms, 2011. "ALWA – New Life Course Data for Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 131(4), pages 625-634.
    12. Apps, Patricia & Rees, Ray, 2001. "Fertility, Female Labor Supply and Public Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 409, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Fiona Steele & Constantinos Kallis & Harvey Goldstein & Heather Joshi, 2005. "The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 647-673, November.
    14. Fahr, René & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Did the Hartz Reforms Speed-Up the Matching Process? A Macro-Evaluation Using Empirical Matching Functions," Munich Reprints in Economics 20482, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
    16. Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
    17. Michael Rendall & Lynda Clarke & H. Peters & Nalini Ranjit & Georgia Verropoulou, 1999. "Incomplete reporting of men’s fertility in the united states and britain: A research note," Demography, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 135-144, February.
    18. Markus Frölich & Blaise Melly, 2007. "Unconditional quantile treatment effects under endogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    19. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, December.
    20. Cay Folkers, 2003. "Ehegattensplitting und Leistungsfähigkeitsprinzip," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(4), pages 413-424, November.
    21. repec:iab:iabzaf:v:40:i:1:p:45-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Melvyn G. Coles & Marco Francesconi, 2011. "On The Emergence Of Toyboys: The Timing Of Marriage With Aging And Uncertain Careers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(3), pages 825-853, 08.
    23. Anna Christina D'Addio & Michael Rosholm, . "Labour Market Transitions of French Youth," Economics Working Papers 2002-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    24. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    25. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2000. "Employment careers and the timing of first births in East Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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