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A spatial choice model based on random utility

  • Müller, Sven

Decreasing number of students in Germany lead to the closures of schools due to lack of utilization. Hence, competition between schools will increase. We use a mixed multinomial logit model in order to identify influencing factors of school choice and to regard realistic substitution patterns within the context of forecasting school choice probabilities with changing choice sets over time. Results yield commuting distance as the most important factor, but school characteristics like profiles (math or languages, e.g.) and spatial attributes like centrality have remarkable impact, too. Moreover, the analysis shows heterogeneity in population. For our sample we identify authority responsible (private/public school) as the most important variable to specify substitution patterns. Using the results, we simulate the effects of school closings and openings in realistic scenarios.

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Paper provided by Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tudiwv:22009
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  1. Muendler, Marc-Andreas & Jäckle, Robert & Ekholm, Karolina & Becker, Sascha O., 2004. "Location Choice and Employment Decisions: A Comparison of German and Swedish Multinationals," Kiel Working Papers 1243, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
  3. A Borgers & H Oppewal & M Ponjé & H Timmermans, 1999. "Assessing the impact of school marketing: conjoint choice experiments incorporating availability and substitution effects," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(11), pages 1949-1964, November.
  4. Bhat, Chandra R. & Gossen, Rachel, 2004. "A mixed multinomial logit model analysis of weekend recreational episode type choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 767-787, November.
  5. Dante Contreras, 2002. "Vouchers, School Choice and the Access to Higher Education," Working Papers 845, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  6. Alderman, Harold & Orazem, Peter & Paterno, Elizabeth M., 2001. "School Quality, School Cost, and the Public/Private School Choices of Low-Income Households in Pakistan," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1970, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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