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Optimal policy under model uncertainty: A structural-bayesian estimation approach

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  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander
  • Stoltenberg, Christian

Abstract

In this paper we propose a novel methodology to analyze optimal policies under model uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconomic models. As an application we assess the relevant sources of uncertainty for the optimal conduct of monetary policy within (parameter uncertainty) and across models (specification uncertainty) using EU 13 data. Parameter uncertainty matters only if the zero bound on interest rates is explicitly taken into account. In any case, optimal monetary policy is highly sensitive with respect to specification uncertainty implying substantial welfare gains of a robust-optimal rule that incorporates this risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2007. "Optimal policy under model uncertainty: A structural-bayesian estimation approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-040, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2007-040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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