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Carbon price dynamics: Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Rickels, Wilfried
  • Görlich, Dennis
  • Oberst, Gerrit
  • Peterson, Sonja

Abstract

In this paper we empirically investigate potential determinants of allowance (EUA) price dynamics in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase II. In contrast to previous papers, we analyze a significantly longer time series, place particular emphasis on the importance of price variable selection, and include an extensive data of renewable energy feed-in in Europe. We show (i) that results are extremely sensitive to choosing different price series of potential determinants, such as coal and gas prices, (ii) that EUA price dynamics are only marginally influenced by renewable energy provision in Europe, and iii) that EUA prices currently do not reflect marginal abatement costs across Europe. We conclude that the expectation of a more mature allowance market in Phase II cannot be confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Rickels, Wilfried & Görlich, Dennis & Oberst, Gerrit & Peterson, Sonja, 2012. "Carbon price dynamics: Evidence from Phase II of the European Emission Trading Scheme," Kiel Working Papers 1804, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6969 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    3. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Detecting instability in the volatility of carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 99-110, January.
    4. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5110 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2010. "International Steam Coal Market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 181-202.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon emission trading; EU ETS; Carbon price influence factors; Fuel switching;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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