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Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2019 - Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abschwung

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia
  • Potjagailo, Galina
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird voraussichtlich für geraume Zeit nicht mehr so hohe Zuwachsraten verzeichnen wie in den vergangenen Jahren. So geht das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials, also das bei Normalauslastung aller Produktionsfaktoren erzielbare Bruttoinlandsprodukt, nicht zuletzt aufgrund des demografischen Wandels mittelfristig zurück. Nach 1,5 Prozent im Jahr 2018 dürfte das Potenzialwachstum unseren Schätzungen zufolge im Jahr 2023 nur noch bei rund 1,2 Prozent liegen. Auch die Konjunktur hat ihren Hochpunkt wohl überschritten. Nachdem das Bruttoinlandsprodukt seit dem Jahr 2014 stärker gestiegen war als das Produktionspotenzial und die deutsche Wirtschaft für einige Zeit deutlich oberhalb ihrer Normalauslastung operiert hatte, geriet die Produktion im vergangenen Jahr ins Stocken. Die kurzfristige Beschleunigung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im kommenden Jahr ist vor allem einem Kalendereffekt geschuldet, der verdeckt, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft einem Abschwung entgegensieht. Sowohl die Verlangsamung des Potenzialwachstums als auch die sich abschwächende konjunkturelle Dynamik wird in der mittleren Frist die öffentlichen Finanzen belasten, so dass einer nachhaltigen Finanzpolitik eine große Bedeutung zukommt. Die Schuldenbremse steht einer stabilitäts- und wachstumsfördernden Politik nicht im Weg. Es kommt vielmehr darauf an, die Kommunalfinanzen auf eine neue Grundlage zu stellen, die sie von zyklischen Haushaltspositionen entlastet.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, U, 2019. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2019 - Deutsche Wirtschaft im Abschwung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    2. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2019 - Gebremste Expansion der Weltwirtschaft [World Economy Spring 2019 - Reduced momentum in the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 51, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Keywords

    Produktionslücke; Produktionspotenzial; Mittelfristprojektion; Totale Faktorproduktivität;
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