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Weltkonjunktur kommt nach kräftiger Erholung in schwierigeres Fahrwasser

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Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft hat sich rascher erholt als erwartet. Vor allem die Konjunktur in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern hat im Winterhalbjahr 2009/2010 eine hohe Dynamik entfaltet, aber auch in den Industrieländern nahm die Produktion überraschend deutlich zu. Allerdings deutet sich an, dass die Konjunktur in den Schwellenländern im weiteren Verlauf an Schwung verliert. Gleichzeitig hat die Vertrauenskrise im Euroraum gezeigt, dass erhebliche Risiken für die Erholung in den Industrieländern bestehen. Daher haben wir zwar unsere Prognose für den Anstieg des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im Jahr 2010 deutlich von 3,7 Prozent in unserer Prognose vom März auf 4,4 Prozent erhöht. Für 2011 erwarten wir aber nach wie vor einen nur moderaten Zuwachs der Weltproduktion von 3,7 Prozent (Märzprognose: 3,6 Prozent). Dabei bleibt die Arbeitslosigkeit in den Industrieländern insgesamt hoch, und die Inflation verharrt auf niedrigem Niveau.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur kommt nach kräftiger Erholung in schwierigeres Fahrwasser," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45600, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45600
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 478, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    6. N/A, 2009. "On the Recession," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 24(3), pages 253-253, May.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft im Abwärtsstrudel," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28722, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Euroraum: Konjunktur trotz Schuldenkrise aufwärtsgerichtet," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45575, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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