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Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies

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  • Ivrendi, Mehmet
  • Yildirim, Zekeriya

Abstract

This paper investigates both the effects of domestic monetary policy and external shocks on fundamental macroeconomic variables in six fast growing emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey - denoted hereafter as BRICS_T. The authors adopt a structural VAR model with a block exogeneity procedure to identify domestic monetary policy shocks and external shocks. Their research reveals that a contractionary monetary policy in most countries appreciates the domestic currency, increases interest rates, effectively controls inflation rates and reduces output. They do not find any evidence of the price, output, exchange rates and trade puzzles that are usually found in VAR studies. Their findings imply that the exchange rate is the main transmission mechanism in BRICS_T economies. The authors also find that that there are inverse J-curves in five of the six fast growing emerging economies and there are deviations from UIP (Uncovered Interest Parity) in response to a contractionary monetary policy in those countries. Moreover, world output shocks are not a dominant source of fluctuations in those economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivrendi, Mehmet & Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201361
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:4:p:66-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alessandro Roncaglia, 2015. "Oil and its markets," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(273), pages 151-175.
    3. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    4. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Can monetary policy drive economic growth? empirical evidence from Tanzania," Working Papers 21122, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    6. Julio Lopez Gallardo, Roberto Valencia Arriaga, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of high interest rate policy: Mexico’s experience," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(274), pages 214-237.
    7. Shaig Adigozalov & Vugar Rahimov, 2015. "Institutional Quality, Cyclicality of Macroeconomic Policies and the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Transition Economies," IHEID Working Papers 23-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; inflation; international trade; exchange rate; SVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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