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Zu den globalen Auswirkungen einer harten Landung der Konjunktur in China

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

Anzeichen einer Abkühlung der konjunkturellen Dynamik und Zweifel an den offiziellen BIP-Zahlen Chinas haben das Szenario eines abrupten Einbruchs der chinesischen Konjunktur in den Fokus gerückt. Angesichts der großen Bedeutung Chinas für die Weltwirtschaft wäre mit erheblichen globalen Auswirkungen zu rechnen. Um diese zu quantifizieren, untersuchen wir die Effekte eines Konjunktureinbruchs im Folgenden mit zwei Modellen, GVAR und NiGEM, die unterschiedlichen Modellklassen angehören. Die Verwendung zweier konzeptuell verschiedener Modelle lässt Aussagen über die Robustheit der Ergebnisse zu. GVAR ist ein primär datengetriebenes Modell, das die kurz- und langfristigen Anpassungsprozesse in Reaktion auf einen Schock erfasst. Bei NiGEM handelt es sich um ein vom britischen National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) bereit gestelltes strukturelles makroökonometrisches Modell, das theoriefundierter ist und neukeynesianische Eigenschaften aufweist. Beiden Modellen ist gemein, dass sie die internationalen Verflechtungen zwischen den Volkswirtschaften über Handelsströme explizit abbilden.

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  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Zu den globalen Auswirkungen einer harten Landung der Konjunktur in China," Kiel Insight 2015.12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201512
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    1. Nils Jannsen & Galina Potjagailo & Maik H. Wolters, 2019. "Monetary Policy during Financial Crises: Is the Transmission Mechanism Impaired?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 81-126, October.
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    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Fiedler, Salomon & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2017 - Weltkonjunktur: Aufwärts trotz Risiken [World Economy Spring 2017 - World economy: Continued expansion amid increased uncertainties]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2018 - Weltkonjunktur mit weniger Schwung [World Economy Winter 2018 - Slower growth in the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2016 - Potenzialwachstum überschreitet Zenit," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2019 - Gebremste Expansion der Weltwirtschaft [World Economy Spring 2019 - Reduced momentum in the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 51, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2017 - Weltkonjunktur im Aufwind [World Economy Summer 2017 - Sustained acceleration of the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 31, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2016 - Potenzialwachstum vor Zwischenhoch," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung [World Economy Autumn 2017 - World economy in full swing]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 33, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2018 - Wachstum lässt nach: Konjunktur kühlt ab," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik überschreitet ihren Höhepunkt [World economic momentum peaks]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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