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Welfare effects of demographic changes in a Ramsey growth model

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  • Stiller, Silvia

Abstract

Population ageing and decline are inescapable facts for Germany which are expected to have - especially due to the labour force decrease - negative impacts on the economy. In this context it is often referred to the possibility of countering potentially negative economic effects of population ageing by a fertility increase or immigration of people at the working age. Of course, changing fertility and immigration are both suited to reduce population ageing. But they influence the population structure, labour supply and thus the economic conditions in substantially different way. This discussion paper focuses on one aspect which is related to this issue. It is examined by simulations how different demographic scenarios affect consumption development and thus average welfare of individual cohorts. The analysis is based on a Ramsey growth model and refers to the demographic structure in Germany. The model results imply that welfare of cohorts with a life expectancy up to 50 years is higher without immigration. Instead, when a consumer faces a life expectancy higher than 50 years or will be born in the future immigration has a positive influence on welfare. Independently of his life expectancy and year of birth a consumer is worse off if fertility rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Stiller, Silvia, 2000. "Welfare effects of demographic changes in a Ramsey growth model," HWWA Discussion Papers 107, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 1999. "Ageing, Immigration and Optimal National Saving in Australia. a," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 690, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
    4. Erik Canton & Lex Meijdam, 1997. "Altruism and the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 10(3), pages 317-334.
    5. Fougere, Maxime & Merette, Marcel, 1999. "Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 411-427, August.
    6. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1995. "Population Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262181606, January.
    7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Forecast; Population Ageing; Consumption; Welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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