Estimation of sentiment effects in financial markets: A simulated method of moments approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Zhenxi Chen & Thomas Lux, 2018. "Estimation of Sentiment Effects in Financial Markets: A Simulated Method of Moments Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 711-744, October.
References listed on IDEAS
- Barde, Sylvain, 2016.
"Direct comparison of agent-based models of herding in financial markets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 329-353.
- Sylvain Barde & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2016. "Direct comparison of agent-based models of herding in financial markets," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03604749, HAL.
- Sylvain Barde & Ofce Observatoire Français Des Conjonctures Économiques, 2016. "Direct comparison of agent-based models of herding in financial markets," Post-Print hal-03604749, HAL.
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Lux, Thomas, 2009.
"Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
- Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Economics Working Papers 2008-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
- Grammig, Joachim & Schaub, Eva-Maria, 2014. "Give me strong moments and time - Combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing models," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100607, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993.
"Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
- Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heisz, Andrew & Corak, Miles, 1998. "Mobilite intergenerationnelle des gains et du revenu des hommes au Canada : etude basee sur les donnees longitudinales de l'impot sur le revenu," Direction des études analytiques : documents de recherche 1998113f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
- Thomas Lux, 2009. "Rational Forecasts or Social Opinion Dynamics? Identification of Interaction Effects in a Business Climate Survey," Post-Print hal-00720175, HAL.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7kr9gv74ut9ngo58gia97t83i7 is not listed on IDEAS
- McFadden, Daniel, 1989.
"A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
- Daniel McFadden, 1987. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models Without Numerical Integration," Working papers 464, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner (ed.), 2009. "Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123742582.
- Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2015. "Bringing an elementary agent-based model to the data: Estimation via GMM and an application to forecasting of asset price volatility," FinMaP-Working Papers 38, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- Sylvain Barde, 2015. "Direct calibration and comparison of agent-based herding models of financial markets," Studies in Economics 1507, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2007.
"Methods to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2599-2636, August.
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2002. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4fc8x822, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Cahiers de recherche 2003-23, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Cahiers de recherche 17-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2004. "Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 83, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Grammig, Joachim & Schaub, Eva-Maria, 2014. "Give me strong moments and time: Combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing models," CFS Working Paper Series 479, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007.
"An objective function for simulation based inference on exchange rate data,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(2), pages 125-145, December.
- Manfred Gilli & Peter Winker & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2006. "An Objective Function for Simulation Based Inference on Exchange Rate Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 147, Society for Computational Economics.
- Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007. "An Objective Function for Simulation Based Inference on Exchange Rate Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-01, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2002. "Simulation-Based Method of Moments and Efficiency," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 482-492, October.
- Manfred Gilli & Enrico Schumann, 2009. "Optimal enough?," Working Papers 010, COMISEF.
- Tae-Seok Jang, 2015. "Identification of Social Interaction Effects in Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 207-238, February.
- LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007.
"A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2005. "A noise trader model as a generator of apparent financial power laws and long memory," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Franke, Reiner, 2009. "Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 804-815, December.
- Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
- Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
- Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
- Francesco Lamperti, 2015. "An Information Theoretic Criterion for Empirical Validation of Time Series Models," LEM Papers Series 2015/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2008.
"Time variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-136, January.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2005. "Time-variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Economics Working Papers 2005-14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2006. "Time-variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Economics Working Papers 2006-16, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Grammig, Joachim & Schaub, Eva-Maria, 2014. "Give me strong moments and time: Combining GMM and SMM to estimate long-run risk asset pricing," CFR Working Papers 14-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
- Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015.
"Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
- Jakob Grazzini & Matteo Richiardi, 2014. "Estimation of Ergodic Agent-Based Models by Simulated Minimum Distance," Economics Papers 2014-W07, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012.
"Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
- Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," BERG Working Paper Series 78, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank, 2005.
"Representativeness of news and exchange rate dynamics,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-689, April.
- Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Representativeness of News and Exchange Rate Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
- Jakob Grazzini, 2012. "Analysis of the Emergent Properties: Stationarity and Ergodicity," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 1-7.
- Kristian Stegenborg Larsen & Michael Sørensen, 2007. "Diffusion Models For Exchange Rates In A Target Zone," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 285-306, April.
- Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Bringing an elementary agent-based model to the data: Estimation via GMM and an application to forecasting of asset price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Zila, Eric & Kukacka, Jiri, 2023. "Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 366-391.
- Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017.
"Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
- Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2016. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," FinMaP-Working Papers 63, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- Tae-Seok Jang, 2015. "Identification of Social Interaction Effects in Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 207-238, February.
- Tubbenhauer, Tobias & Fieberg, Christian & Poddig, Thorsten, 2021. "Multi-agent-based VaR forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
- Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017.
"The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
- Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2015. "The Adaptiveness in Stock Markets: Testing the Stylized Facts in the Dax 30," Research Paper Series 364, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Lux, Thomas, 2018. "Estimation of agent-based models using sequential Monte Carlo methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 391-408.
- Donovan Platt, 2019. "A Comparison of Economic Agent-Based Model Calibration Methods," Papers 1902.05938, arXiv.org.
- Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018.
"Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 38-51.
- Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," MPRA Paper 84886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sani, Amir, 2018.
"Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 366-389.
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Working Papers hal-01499344, HAL.
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Working Papers hal-03458875, HAL.
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01499344, HAL.
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01499344, HAL.
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Papers 1703.10639, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2017.
- Frencesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-based model calibration using machine learning surrogates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," LEM Papers Series 2017/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2015.
"Testing of a market fraction model and power-law behaviour in the DAX 30,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-17.
- Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2015. "Testing of a Market Fraction Model and Power-Law Behaviour in the Dax 30," Research Paper Series 354, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Zhenxi Chen & Jing Ru, 2021. "Herding and capitalization size in the Chinese stock market: a micro-foundation evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1895-1911, April.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/20hflp7eqn97boh50no50tv67n is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/20hflp7eqn97boh50no50tv67n is not listed on IDEAS
- Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Bringing an elementary agent-based model to the data: Estimation via GMM and an application to forecasting of asset price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
- Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018.
"Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 19-37.
- Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets," BERG Working Paper Series 128, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020.
"Bet against the trend and cash in profits,"
CEPN Working Papers
halshs-02956879, HAL.
- Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," Working Papers halshs-02956879, HAL.
- Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," FMM Working Paper 60-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def090, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
- Platt, Donovan, 2020. "A comparison of economic agent-based model calibration methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
- Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai, 2019.
"Modelling the spreading process of extreme risks via a simple agent-based model: Evidence from the China stock market,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 383-391.
- Dinghai Xu & Jingru Ji & Donghua Wang, 2018. "Modelling the spreading process of extreme risks via a simple agent-based model: Evidence from the China stock market," Working Papers 1806, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised 09 Jan 2018.
- Alexandru Mandes & Peter Winker, 2017.
"Complexity and model comparison in agent based modeling of financial markets,"
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 12(3), pages 469-506, October.
- Alexandru Mandes & Peter Winker, 2015. "Complexity and Model Comparison in Agent Based Modeling of Financial Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201528, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Grosche, Stephanie & Heckelei, Thomas, 2014. "Price dynamics and financialization effects in corn futures markets with heterogeneous traders," Discussion Papers 172077, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
- Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2017.
"Herding behaviour and volatility clustering in financial markets,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1187-1203, August.
- Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Herding behavior and volatility clustering in financial markets," BERG Working Paper Series 107, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Lux, Thomas, 2017. "Estimation of agent-based models using sequential Monte Carlo methods," Economics Working Papers 2017-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
simulation-based estimation; herding; agent-based model; model validation;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2015-04-19 (Econometrics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vakiede.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.