IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fisisi/s32009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A system dynamics approach for modelling a lead-market-based export potential

Author

Listed:
  • Walz, Rainer
  • Helfrich, Nicki
  • Enzmann, Alexander

Abstract

For knowledge-intensive goods, foreign trade performance also depends on the quality of the technology. Important factors to consider are technological capa-bilities, various market factors which influence the chances of a country devel-oping a lead-market position, innovation-friendly regulation and the existence of internationally competitive complementary industry clusters. In order to model these aspects, various feedback mechanisms between these factors have to be taken into account, among them knowledge spillovers from the export success which lead to an erosion of a lead-market position over time. A system dynam-ics framework is used for a first implementation of a simulation model for wind energy technology exports from Germany. The empirical results show the ex-pected dynamics of the system and underline the importance of the various feedback loops.

Suggested Citation

  • Walz, Rainer & Helfrich, Nicki & Enzmann, Alexander, 2009. "A system dynamics approach for modelling a lead-market-based export potential," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S3/2009, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s32009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28522/1/610704931.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders and Product Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-586.
    2. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm Level Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Microeconometrics of International Trade, chapter 1, pages 3-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Foxon, T. J. & Gross, R. & Chase, A. & Howes, J. & Arnall, A. & Anderson, D., 2005. "UK innovation systems for new and renewable energy technologies: drivers, barriers and systems failures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2123-2137, November.
    4. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1996. "Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 251-278, May.
    5. Keller, Wolfgang, 1998. "Are international R&D spillovers trade-related?: Analyzing spillovers among randomly matched trade partners," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1481, September.
    6. Katharine Wakelin, 1998. "The role of innovation in bilateral OECD trade performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1335-1346.
    7. Mario Ragwitz & Claus Huber & Gustav Resch, 2007. "Promotion of renewable energy sources: effects on innovation," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 32-56.
    8. Fagerberg, Jan, 1996. "Technology and Competitiveness," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 39-51, Autumn.
    9. Beise, Marian, 2004. "Lead markets: country-specific drivers of the global diffusion of innovations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 997-1018, September.
    10. Blind, Knut, 2001. "The impacts of innovations and standards on trade of measurement and testing products: empirical results of Switzerland's bilateral trade flows with Germany, France and the UK," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-460, December.
    11. Mitchell, Catherine & Connor, Peter, 2004. "Renewable energy policy in the UK 1990-2003," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1935-1947, November.
    12. Beise, Marian & Rennings, Klaus, 2005. "Lead markets and regulation: a framework for analyzing the international diffusion of environmental innovations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 5-17, January.
    13. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    14. Reiche, Danyel & Bechberger, Mischa, 2004. "Policy differences in the promotion of renewable energies in the EU member states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 843-849, May.
    15. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    16. Stefan Lachenmaier & Ludger Wößmann, 2006. "Does innovation cause exports? Evidence from exogenous innovation impulses and obstacles using German micro data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 317-350, April.
    17. Fagerberg, Jan, 1995. "User-Producer Interaction, Learning and Comparative Advantage," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(1), pages 243-256, February.
    18. Daniele Archibugi & Jonathan Michie, 1998. "Technical Change, Growth and Trade: New Departures in Institutional Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 313-332, July.
    19. Albert Faber & Koen Frenken, 2008. "Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics," Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series 08-15, Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies, revised Apr 2008.
    20. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
    21. Jakob B. Madsen, 2008. "Innovations and manufacturing export performance in the OECD countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 143-167, January.
    22. Branstetter, Lee G., 2001. "Are knowledge spillovers international or intranational in scope?: Microeconometric evidence from the U.S. and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 53-79, February.
    23. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & David G. Tarr, 2017. "International Knowledge Flows and Economic Performance: A Review of the Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 6, pages 129-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
    25. Fagerberg, Jan, 1988. "International Competitiveness," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 355-374, June.
    26. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    27. Prabuddha Sanyal, 2004. "The role of innovation and opportunity in bilateral OECD trade performance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 634-664, December.
    28. Yingqi Wei & Xiaming Liu & Chengang Wang, 2008. "Mutual productivity spillovers between foreign and local firms in China," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 609-631, July.
    29. Jacobsson, Staffan & Bergek, Anna & Finon, Dominique & Lauber, Volkmar & Mitchell, Catherine & Toke, David & Verbruggen, Aviel, 2009. "EU renewable energy support policy: Faith or facts?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2143-2146, June.
    30. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-266, April.
    31. Archibugi, Daniele & Michie, Jonathan, 1998. "Technical Change, Growth and Trade: New Departures in Institutional Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 313-332, July.
    32. Katharine Wakelin, 1997. "trade and innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1342.
    33. Szarka, Joseph, 2006. "Wind power, policy learning and paradigm change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3041-3048, November.
    34. Maurseth, Per Botolf & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. " Knowledge Spillovers in Europe: A Patent Citations Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(4), pages 531-545, December.
    35. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "The Search for R&D Spillovers," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 251-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Rainer Walz, 2007. "The role of regulation for sustainable infrastructure innovations: the case of wind energy," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 57-88.
    37. Greenaway, David & Sousa, Nuno & Wakelin, Katharine, 2004. "Do domestic firms learn to export from multinationals?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 1027-1043, November.
    38. Hariolf Grupp, 1998. "Foundations of the Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1390.
    39. Langniss, Ole & Wiser, Ryan, 2003. "The renewables portfolio standard in Texas: an early assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 527-535, May.
    40. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    41. Bird, Lori & Bolinger, Mark & Gagliano, Troy & Wiser, Ryan & Brown, Matthew & Parsons, Brian, 2005. "Policies and market factors driving wind power development in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1397-1407, July.
    42. Menz, Fredric C., 2005. "Green electricity policies in the United States: case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(18), pages 2398-2410, December.
    43. Per Botolf Maurseth & Bart Verspagen, 2002. "Knowledge Spillovers in Europe: A Patent Citations Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(4), pages 531-545, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Ragwitz & Simone Steinhilber, 2014. "Effectiveness and efficiency of support schemes for electricity from renewable energy sources," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 213-229, March.
    2. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2008. "Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches," MPRA Paper 27523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. del Río, Pablo & Bleda, Mercedes, 2012. "Comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies: A function of innovation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 272-282.
    4. Neil Foster-McGregor, 2012. "Innovation and Technology Transfer across Countries," wiiw Research Reports 380, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Schleich, Joachim & Walz, Rainer & Ragwitz, Mario, 2017. "Effects of policies on patenting in wind-power technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 684-695.
    6. Peri, Giovanni, 2003. "Knowledge Flows, R&D Spillovers and Innovation," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-40, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    8. Yusuf Bayraktutan & Hanife Bıdırdı, 2018. "Innovation and High-Tech Exports in Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-21, October.
    9. Elif Bascavusoglu-Moreau & Qian Cher Li, 2013. "Knowledge Spillovers & Sources of Knowledge in the Manufacturing Sector: Literature Review & Empirical Evidence for the UK," Working Papers wp451, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    10. Marcelo José Braga Nonnenberg & Ana Paula Avellar, 2013. "Exportações e Processos Inovativos: Um Estudo Para a América Latina e a Europa do Leste," Discussion Papers 1899, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "R&D Spillovers and Export Performance: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Studies in Economics 0014, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    12. Jochem, Patrick & Schleich, Joachim, 2012. "Exploring the drivers behind automotive exports in OECD countries: An empirical analysis," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S3/2012, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    13. Franco Malerba & Maria Mancusi & Fabio Montobbio, 2013. "Innovation, international R&D spillovers and the sectoral heterogeneity of knowledge flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 697-722, December.
    14. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    15. Gong, Guan & Keller, Wolfgang, 2003. "Convergence and polarization in global income levels: a review of recent results on the role of international technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1079, June.
    16. Abdul Rauf & Ying Ma & Abdul Jalil, 2019. "Revisiting the Innovation-export Nexus using Industry-level Data: Evidence from China's Large- and Medium-sized Industrial Enterprises," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 73-80.
    17. Laura Bottazzi & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovation in the Short and in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 11524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Marco Grazzi & Nanditha Mathew & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Making one’s own way: jumping ahead in the capability space and exporting among Indian firms," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 931-957, July.
    19. Elvira Cerver-Romero & João J. Ferreira & Cristina Fernandes, 2020. "A scientometric analysis of knowledge spillover research," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 780-805, June.
    20. Rainer Walz, 2006. "Impact of Strategies to Increase Res in Europe on Employment and Competitiveness," Energy & Environment, , vol. 17(6), pages 951-975, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Renewable energy technologies; exports; first-mover advantage; lead markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s32009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isfhgde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.