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The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods

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  • Kaldasch, Joachim

Abstract

A dynamic model of the product lifecycle of (nearly) homogeneous durables in polypoly markets is established. It describes the concurrent evolution of the unit sales and price of durable goods. The theory is based on the idea that the sales dynamics is determined by a meeting process of demanded with supplied product units. Taking advantage from the Bass model for first purchase and a logistic model for repurchase the entire product lifecycle of a durable can be established. For the case of a fast growing supply the model suggests that the mean price of the good decreases according to a logistic law. Both, the established unit sales and price evolution are in agreement with the empirical data studied in this paper. The presented approach discusses further the interference of the diffusion process with the supply dynamics. The model predicts the occurrence of lost sales in the initial stages of the lifecycle due to supply constraints. They are the origin for a retarded market penetration. The theory suggests that the imitation rate B indicating social contagion in the Bass model has its maximum magnitude for the case of a large amount of available units at introduction and a fast output increase. The empirical data of the investigated samples are in qualitative agreement with this prediction.
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  • Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods," EconStor Preprints 50530, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:50530
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Jakub Growiec & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni & H. Eugene Stanley, 2007. "The Growth of Business Firms: Facts and Theory," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 574-584, 04-05.
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    5. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
    6. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    7. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2014. "Evolutionary model of stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 415(C), pages 449-462.
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    16. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durables," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-12.
    17. Victor M. Yakovenko & J. Barkley Rosser, 2009. "Colloquium: Statistical mechanics of money, wealth, and income," Papers 0905.1518, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durables," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 1-12.
    2. Joachim Kaldasch, 2011. "The Experience Curve and the Market Size of Competitive Consumer Durable Markets," EconStor Preprints 59749, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets," EconStor Preprints 50531, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory

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