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Dynamic Models of Religious Conformity and Conversion: Theory and Calibrations

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  • Oz Shy

Abstract

This paper develops behavioral and deterministic overlapping generations models to explain and simulate changes in the proportion of secular and religious people. Under the behavioral approach, the role of the church is to generate an externality associated with the investment in enhancing the conformity rate among young believers. Under the deterministic approach, changes in the number of nonbelievers are explained by different birth rates among secular and religious parents as well as the relative proportion of nonconformists among the young in each group. This model is then used to calibrate for (non)conformity rates among secular and religious people. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Dynamische Modelle religiöser Konformität und Konversion: Theorie und Simulationen) Diese Arbeit entwickelt deterministische und Verhaltensmodelle mit überlappenden Generationen, welche die Veränderungen des Zahlenverhältnisses von nicht religiösen zu religiösen Menschen erklären und simulieren. Im Verhaltensansatz wird aufgezeigt, dass der Kirche die Aufgabe zukommt, einen externen Effekt zu erzeugen, der dafür sorgt, dass junge Gläubige mit der Glaubenseinstellung ihrer Eltern konform gehen. Der deterministische Ansatz erklärt die Veränderungen in der Anzahl Nichtgläubiger einerseits mit den unterschiedlichen Geburtenraten unter nichtgläubigen Eltern im Vergleich zu religiösen Eltern und andererseits durch den relativen Anteil von Nichtkonformen unter der jungen Generation in jeder Gruppe. Dieses Modell wird verwandt, um (Nicht-)Konformitätsraten--nach denen junge Menschen ihren Eltern im Glauben folgen oder nicht--innerhalb der Gruppen weltlicher sowie religiöser Menschen zu berechnen.

Suggested Citation

  • Oz Shy, 2005. "Dynamic Models of Religious Conformity and Conversion: Theory and Calibrations," CIG Working Papers SP II 2005-12, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  • Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2005-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ronen Bar-El & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman & Yossef Tobol, 2013. "The evolution of secularization: cultural transmission, religion and fertility—theory, simulations and evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1129-1174, July.
    2. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1808 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Teresa García-Muñoz & Shoshana Neuman, 2007. "Unravelling Secularization: an International Study," Papers on Economics of Religion 07/05, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    4. Oz Shy, 2011. "A Short Survey of Network Economics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 38(2), pages 119-149, March.
    5. Ausloos, M. & Petroni, F., 2009. "Statistical dynamics of religion evolutions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(20), pages 4438-4444.
    6. Friedman, Daniel. & Fan, Jijian. & Jonathan Gair & Sriya Iyer & Bartosz Redlicki & Chander Velu, 2016. "How Fundamentalism Takes Root: A Simulation Study," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1681, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Azamat Valei, 2017. "Informative Advertising in a Monopoly with Network Externalities," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp596, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conversion; Religious conformity; Role of the Church; Nonconformity; Nonreligious people; Religious Affiliation; Parents’ education; Believers; Nonbelievers.;

    JEL classification:

    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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