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Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis

Author

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  • Joseph Francois
  • Olga Pindyuk

Abstract

This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk, 2013. "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis," FIW Research Reports series IV-003, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2013:i:iv-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    2. Oecd, 2011. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Jobs and Growth: Technical Note," OECD Trade Policy Papers 107, OECD Publishing.
    3. Lionel Fontagné & Amélie Guillin & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2011. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Working Papers 2011-24, CEPII research center.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch, 2013. "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Potentials, Problems and Perspectives," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 49-60, August.
    2. Mavuş, Merve & Oduncu, Arif & Güneş, Didem, 2013. "The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 51900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Oduncu, Arif & Mavuş, Merve & Güneş, Didem, 2014. "The Possible Effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 52917, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free trade agreements; EU; Canada; USA; CGE modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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