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Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis

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  • Joseph Francois
  • Olga Pindyuk

Abstract

This study examines the economic impact on Austria of three possible new EU free trade agreements: (1) an EU-US agreement; (2) an EU-Canada agreement; and (3) an EUArmenia/Georgia/Moldova agreement. This is done with a computational model of the global economy. The trade agreements are modeled as a mix of preferential tariff reductions and reductions in non-tariff measures that affect both goods and services. The primary impact follows from NTM reduction rather than tariff reductions. Of the three agreements, a potential agreement with the US is by far the most important. This follows from the size of the US economy. The US accounts for roughly one-quarter of extra-EU Austrian exports. Overall, the combined impact of the FTAs studied is positive. Most of the impact follows from investment response. Productivity gains from NTM reduction mean a combination of increased national income, higher wages, and employment, and increased capital stocks for the Austrian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk, 2013. "Modeling the Effects of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and Canada, USA and Moldova/Georgia/Armenia on the Austrian Economy: Model Simulations for Trade Policy Analysis," FIW Research Reports series IV-003, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2013:i:iv-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "The computable general equilibrium analysis of the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures within the Korea-Japan-European Union free trade agreement," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2017. "A Macroeconomic Model of CETA's Impact on Austria," WIFO Working Papers 532, WIFO.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch, 2013. "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Potentials, Problems and Perspectives," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 49-60, August.
    4. Gabriel Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2013. "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Potentials, Problems and Perspectives," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(02), pages 49-60, August.
    5. Mavuş, Merve & Oduncu, Arif & Güneş, Didem, 2013. "The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 51900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andreas Reinstaller & Elisabeth Christen & Harald Oberhofer & Peter Reschenhofer, 2016. "Eine Analyse der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Österreichs im bilateralen Handel mit den USA (TTIP)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58723, February.
    7. Oduncu, Arif & Mavuş, Merve & Güneş, Didem, 2014. "The Possible Effects of Trans-Pacific Partnership on Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 52917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tamminen, Saara & Niemi, Janne & Nilsson Hakkala, Katariina, 2017. "The expected economic impacts of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement in Finland," Research Reports 187, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Chae-Deug Yi, 2022. "The impact of the Japan-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement on the trade and income of Japan, the European Union, and South Korea," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 329-356, September.
    10. Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2017. "On the impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A quantitative analysis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 54-73,74-92.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free trade agreements; EU; Canada; USA; CGE modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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