IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpit/0503002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terms-Of-Trade Fluctuations And Their Implications For Exchange- Rate Coordination In Mercosur

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho

    (Institute of Economics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)

Abstract

This paper presents the correlation between the annual fluctuations of the terms of trade of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The period under analysis is 1980-2001 and the main findings are that the four countries have a high to moderate synchronization of their export prices, a moderate to low synchronization of their import prices, and a low synchronization of their terms of trade. The small positive correlation between the growth rates of the terms of trade of Brazil and Argentina (0.24) support exchange rate coordination between the two countries, provided that their bilateral real exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate temporarily to accommodate possible differences between the intensity of shocks across them. For instance, given an adverse shock to Brazil, both the Brazilian and Argentine real exchange rates against the rest of the world (domestic good per unit of foreign good) should increase to avoid a reduction, or smooth the variation, of their trade balances, but the Argentine currency should appreciate against the Brazilian currency in real terms because Argentina tends to be less affected by the shock. The observed correlations indicate that, through a joint and flexible managed float of their currencies, Argentina and Brazil may be able to share the benefits and costs of terms-of-trade shocks without imposing major macroeconomic disruptions on each other. In such an arrangement and also based on the observed correlations, Uruguay may either follow Argentina, when the terms-of-trade shock is more intense to Brazil, or do nothing, when the shock is more intense to Argentina. In contrast, Paraguay should follow Brazil, when the terms- of-trade shock is more intense to Argentina, or do nothing, when the shock is more intense to Brazil. Because of the low correlation between the terms-of-trade fluctuations of Brazil and Argentina, the best form of exchange-rate coordination for the near future seems to be a Mercosur version of the European Monetary System of 1979-98, that is, a wide interval of fluctuation for the regional currencies around a common and competitive real exchange rate against the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2005. "Terms-Of-Trade Fluctuations And Their Implications For Exchange- Rate Coordination In Mercosur," International Trade 0503002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Mar 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/it/papers/0503/0503002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2002. "Self-validating optimum currency areas," Staff Reports 152, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2005. "Trends And Fluctuations In Brazilian And Argentine Trade Flows," International Trade 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2005. "Trends And Fluctuations In Brazilian And Argentine Trade Flows," International Trade 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, February.
    3. Mendonça, António & Silvestre, João & Passos, José, 2011. "The shrinking endogeneity of optimum currency areas criteria: Evidence from the European Monetary Union--A beta regression approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 65-69, October.
    4. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2010. "Endogenous Optimal Currency Areas: the Case of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(1), pages 25-51, January.
    5. B. Gabriela Mundaca & Jon Strand, 2005. "A risk allocation approach to optimal exchange rate policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 398-421, July.
    6. Hochreiter, Eduard & Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 195-211, December.
    7. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-31.
    8. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Uncertain World: Lessons for European Policymakers," Trinity Economics Papers 200213, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1250, CESifo.
    10. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
    12. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    13. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cordeiro, Jose Luis, 2008. "Monetary Systems in Developing Countries: An Unorthodox View," IDE Discussion Papers 154, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2015. "Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 7(2), pages 87-116, August.
    16. Xu, Xinpeng, 2006. "A currency union for Hong Kong and Mainland China?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 894-911, October.
    17. Alain Raybaut & Dominique Torre, 2004. "Unions monétaires, caisses d'émission et dollarisation : les fondements analytiques des systèmes de change « ultra-fixes »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 37-54.
    18. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/26, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
    20. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mercosur; Trade; Exchange-Rate Coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.