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Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers

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  • Krister Sandberg

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Abstract

This paper examines the provincial pattern of growth in China during the period 1985–2000, testing the hypothesis that provinces with similar growth rates are more spatially clustered than would be expected by chance. The provincial economic growth is explained by the distribution of industrial enterprises, foreign direct investment, infrastructure, and governmental preferential policies. The neoclassical hypothesis of convergence is also tested. Indications of unconditional convergence does occur during the periods 1985–2000 and 1985–1990. In addition, conditional convergence is found during the sub-period 1990–1995. Evidence of spatial dependence between adjacent provinces has also been established, and in the econometric part, solved by a spatial lag, or alternatively a spatial error term, in the growth equation. Keywords: GRP-growth, Chinese provinces, Spatial dependence Classification [JEL]: O18, R11, R12

Suggested Citation

  • Krister Sandberg, 2004. "Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers," ERSA conference papers ersa04p596, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p596
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    File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa04/PDF/596.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
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    3. S. Yao & Z. Zhang, 2001. "Regional Growth in China Under Economic Reforms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 167-186.
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    5. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Xiaowen Tian, 1999. "Market Orientation and Regional Economic Disparities in China," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 161-172.
    7. Esther Vaya Valcarce & Enrique Lopez Bazo & Rosina Moreno Serrano & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 2000. "Growth and externalities across economies. An empirical analysis using spatial econometrics," Working Papers in Economics 59, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    8. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    9. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
    10. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-380, December.
    11. Demurger, Sylvie, 2001. "Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-117, March.
    12. Edward M. Graham & Erika Wada, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance," Working Paper Series WP01-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Christopher H. Wheeler, 2001. "A Note on the Spatial Correlation Structure of County-Level Growth in the U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 433-449.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Spatial effects and convergence theory in the Portuguese situation," MPRA Paper 32185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 622-643, November.
    3. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Libman, Alexander & Yu, Xiaofan, 2014. "Economic integration in China: Politics and culture," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 470-492.
    4. Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Effects and Verdoorn Law in the Portuguese Context," Papers 1110.5573, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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