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Spatial Effects and Convergence Theory in the Portuguese Situation

  • Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho

This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and it is stated that productivity is subject to positive spatial autocorrelation (productivity develops in a similar manner to productivity in neighbouring regions), above all, in agriculture and services. Industry and the total of all sectors present indications that they are subject to positive spatial autocorrelation in productivity. On the other hand, it is stated that the indications of convergence, specifically bearing in mind the concept of absolute convergence, are greater in industry. Taking into account the estimation results, it is stated once again that the indications of convergence are greater in industry, and it can be seen that spatial spillover effects, spatial lag (capturing spatial autocorrelation through a spatially redundant dependent variable) and spatial error (capturing spatial autocorrelation through a spatially redundant error term), as well as human capital, condition the convergence of productivity in the various economic sectors of Portuguese region in the period under consideration (Martinho, 2011).

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1110.5571
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1110.5571.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1110.5571
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  1. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  2. Bernard Fingleton, 2001. "Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 117-147.
  3. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  5. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Spatial effects and convergence theory in the Portuguese situation," MPRA Paper 32185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Maria Abreu & Henride Groot & Raymond Florax, 2004. "Spatial Patterns of Technology Diffusion: An Empirical Analysis Using TFP," ERSA conference papers ersa04p425, European Regional Science Association.
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  9. Johan Lundberg, 2006. "Using spatial econometrics to analyse local growth in Sweden," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 303-316.
  10. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  11. Gordon H. Hanson, 1998. "Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," NBER Working Papers 6429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Giuseppe Arbia & Gianfranco Piras, 2004. "Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions using panel data models extended to spatial autocorrelation effects," ERSA conference papers ersa04p524, European Regional Science Association.
  13. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
  14. Krister Sandberg, 2004. "Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers," ERSA conference papers ersa04p596, European Regional Science Association.
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