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Spatial effects and convergence theory in the Portuguese situation

  • Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues

This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran’s I statistics is considered, and it is stated that productivity is subject to positive spatial autocorrelation (productivity develops in a similar manner to productivity in neighbouring regions), above all, in agriculture and services. Industry and the total of all sectors present indications that they are subject to positive spatial autocorrelation in productivity. On the other hand, it is stated that the indications of convergence, specifically bearing in mind the concept of absolute convergence, are greater in industry. Taking into account the estimation results, it is stated once again that the indications of convergence are greater in industry, and it can be seen that spatial spillover effects, spatial lag (capturing spatial autocorrelation through a spatially redundant dependent variable) and spatial error (capturing spatial autocorrelation through a spatially redundant error term), as well as human capital, condition the convergence of productivity in the various economic sectors of Portuguese region in the period under consideration.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32185.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32185
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  1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
  5. Hanson, G.H., 1999. "`Market Potential, Increasing Returns, and Geographic Concentration," Working Papers 439, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Chatterji, Monojit, 1992. "Convergence Clubs and Endogenous Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 57-69, Winter.
  7. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2004. "Spatial Patterns of Technology Diffusion: An Empirical Analysis using TFP," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-079/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  9. Vitor Joao Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2011. "Spatial Effects and Convergence Theory in the Portuguese Situation," Papers 1110.5571,
  10. Johan Lundberg, 2006. "Using spatial econometrics to analyse local growth in Sweden," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 303-316.
  11. Giuseppe Arbia & Gianfranco Piras, 2005. "Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions using panel data models extended to spatial autocorrelation effects," ISAE Working Papers 51, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  12. Bernard Fingleton, 2001. "Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 117-147.
  13. Krister Sandberg, 2004. "Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers," ERSA conference papers ersa04p596, European Regional Science Association.
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